Let's look at the most recent data. The three-month average of global sales of semiconductors rose to $18.15 billion in July, up 5.3 percent from $17.24 billion in June. July sales were down 18.2 percent from $22.19 billion in July 2008, but we're ahead of expectations.

The figures, released on Monday (Aug. 31), are based on statistics gathered by the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) organization and represent a three-month moving average of chip shipments.

What exactly do these numbers mean and where is the industry headed? Based on interviews or other means, here's what the analysts said:

Bruce Diesen, analyst with Carnegie ASA:

''Memory chips, PC and automotive chips improved the most. Cell phone chips showed a very strong rebound in the low end. By region, the biggest improvement was in shipments to Japan.

We now expect a 14 percent drop in world semiconductor dollar sales this year. Our old forecast was minus 15 percent. Automotive chips are likely to show the biggest improvement in Q3 compared to Q2.''

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Jim Feldhan, president of Semico Research Corp.:

''The July numbers reinforce that the market is starting to tighten in capacity utilization. In Q1, we said we hit the bottom. The bottom (of the IC cycle) was actually in February.

In Q2, we saw a sharp recovery. The recovery was sharper than we expected. For July, it is supposed to be a weak month. But July is only 2 percent down. (On a sequential basis, the IC market typically falls somewhere between 20-to-27 percent from June to July.)

All indications are that Q3 will be good for notebooks. The market will be up 12-to-15 percent. Intel has given good guidance. Now, we are also seeing tight supply. There are several product categories that are in tight supply. Line drivers are one. (As a result), the foundries have all raised their capital spending.

But the biggest concern I have is that as we move into the second half, so much of the industry has shut down. Everyone overreacted (to the global recession). We could get caught (by shortages) in the short term.''

(Current Semico IC forecast for 2009: Minus 13 percent)

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Klaus Rinnen, an analyst with Gartner Inc.:

''The recovery is not up and away. What are we seeing (in the market)? Is it a replenishment cycle or true demand? There is some movement in demand. The overall picture has improved. The stimulus (package) in China is helping.

In the first quarter, we saw the bottom in the PC market. Some growth returned to the mobile market. In Q2, we might have entered into the first growth phase. The second quarter acceleration was better than what we thought.

(For Q3), after a spike of activity, we are (in for a period) of slowing. For semiconductors, we will see a slowing quarter. Q4 also tends to slow a little.''

(Current Gartner IC forecast for 2009: Minus 17 percent)