Many have unsuccessfully predicted the end of Moore's Law. But what about predictions made before the law even existed?
A few months ago, market research firm iSuppli Corp. made waves and headlines when it predicted that the rising cost of semiconductor manufacturing equipment would derail Moore's Law after 2014.
As was pointed out by many, iSuppli was simply joining a long, long list of naysayers who predicted the demise of Moore's Law, most of whom have already been proven very wrong. In fact, it's said that people began predicting the end of Moore's Law as soon as Intel Corp. co-founder Gordon Moore published his famous 1965 paper.
But what about those who predicted the demise of Moore's Law even before it came into being?
The pre-Columbian Mesoamerica civilization of Maya flourished from about 2,000 BC to about 900 AD. It is believed to have been a very advanced civilization for its day, particularly in the areas of language, architecture, mathematics and astronomy.
As anyone who watches even a little bit of The History Channel can tell you, the Mayans developed a very sophisticated and accurate calendar covering thousands of years. This calendar apparently comes to an abrupt end on Dec. 22, 2012. Unfortunately for Gordon Moore, his law, and the rest of us, many people have concluded that, because the calendar ends, the world will come to an end. (There are other interpretations.)
As far as I know, there are no specific references to Moore's Law found on the Mayan calendar or in any known Mayan literature. But the logic here goes like this: if the world comes to an end on Dec. 22, 2012, then the number of transistors that can be placed on an IC will immediately stop doubling every two years. It's that simple.
Thus, if the ancient Mayans were right, Moore's Law goes off the tracks well before 2014, and the rising cost of equipment becomes a moot point.
No word so far on any Moore's Law predictions by Nostradamus, but we'll keep digging.