Intel's Ultrabook notebook PC form factor is the talk of CES. But is Intel's concept a sustainable strategy for a new type of computer or just superficial marketing babble?
Intel Corp.'s new form factor for notebook PCs, the Ultrabook, is the talk of the Las Vegas town at the 2012 Consumer Electronics Show (CES), wowing conference attendees with MacBook Air-alikes from a plethora of PC vendors. While some see Intel's initiative as largely cosmetic, however, others see the move as a strategic vision promising to become much more than just a pretty face for PC.
The market for notebooks has, over the past couple of years, started to stagnate somewhat, as tablets and smartphones rise to ever higher computing heights, bringing more performance and lower power to form factors designed to fit in people's pockets.
The humble notebook PC hasn't seen much in the way of major innovation lately, as mobile devices grab all the headlines and touch screen their way into people's hearts. That does not, however, necessarily mean the time for PCs has passed.
Indeed, even as the buzz around mobile grows, people still struggle to transform their shiny new handhelds into true productivity devices, and this is where the PC still has room to shine—as a predominant platform for both business users and consumers.
To win back its rightful place at the top of the personal computing food-chain, however, the notebook ecosystem—spearheaded by Intel, which remains largely irrelevant in mobile—has come to the realization that it needs to undergo a makeover. Like Madonna did in music, Intel must do in computing, re-inventing the product to suit a new generation, accustomed to thinner, lighter, faster, tactile devices.
Thus, if you can't beat 'em, join 'em, seems to be Intel's strategy with Ultrabooks, a name it has patented and is allowed for use only by vendors meeting the Intel-defined minimum specs, including, of course, Intel processors. Neither AMD nor ARM will be able to use Ultrabook branding, making the success or failure of the strategy Intel's and Intel's alone.
Last year Intel launched a $300 million fund to promote the development of technologies for Ultrabooks, and research firm IHS iSuppli has predicted that Ultrabook shipments will be 136.5 million in 2015, up from less than 1 million expected this year, which sounds encouraging enough.
But is making thinner, lighter, more power efficient, prettier laptops going to stimulate massive consumer demand, though? Is it enough?
"If Ultrabooks are only thin light MacBook Air knockoffs, they won't be very successful. They need to be more," said analyst Jack Gold of Gold associates.
Certainly, said Gold, thin and light are important factors, and price—with Intel aiming at the sub $1000 market—is always an issue. But Ultrabooks need something special if they are to be a true blue success.
Gold believes Ultrabooks will undergo some significant changes over the next couple of years, and that these changes will be the catalyst for a PC notebook revival which could capture 15-20 percent of the notebook market by 2014-2015.
For a start, the next generation Core chips from Intel—IvyBridge, due out later this year—should allow Ultrabooks to finally achieve eight to 10 hours of battery life even in the reduced form factor, which necessitates a smaller battery.
They will also be optimized for "instant-on," typically defined as a boot-up in less than 10 seconds from sleep mode. When this happens, it will solve one of the biggest complaints PC users have had for years, and even the playing field with tablets.
Intel's acquisition of Macafee will also result in enhanced security capabilities for Ultrabooks, Gold predicted, giving the notebooks better protection from malware attacks.
Last, but not least, Gold believes the integration of touch interfaces and touch enhanced form factors for Ultrabooks will also emerge, allowing users to interact with devices in a more natural way.
Microsoft's upcoming Windows 8 operating system will have a large part to play in future Ultrabook functionality, and with the OS still somewhat under wraps, one can't accurately predict what functions will and will not be possible.
One can speculate that Intel plans to make much of Microsoft's Metro UI, as well as Win 8's purported enhanced boot and recover from standby capability, as well as develop specialized functions and drivers for the new Ultrabooks. Success, however, will also be dependent on Ultrabook OEMs really differentiating their products, and targeting specific consumer classes with different models, for example, productivity centric Ultrabooks for business users, smaller but powerful Ultrabooks for portable gamers, media creating and consumption Ultrabooks for the YouTube generation and more.
Thus, while a number of first generation Ultrabooks are being announced at CES, analysts believe the "real" Ultrabooks will emerge later in 2012, with new chips, a new OS and new user functionality and performance.
"That is when the true value of the Ultrabook devices will be judged," said Gold, predicting a number of lower-end Ultrabooks would come to market at $400-$500 (or less) by the end of 2012.
"We further expect to see a variety of uniquely derived form factors," Gold noted, including some with tablet-like flip over, extended screens, connectivity (media) options, etc.
Only once that future generation of Ultrabooks emerges will the platform be able to come into its own, and not be seen as simply a MacBook knock-off.
I've used PCs since 1981 however now I own a MacBook Pro simply because it lets me run: Mac OS X, WIndows 7, Google Chrome and Linux. Any new laptop or ultrabook will also have to run all four OSes, which means that I'm tied to Apple for the foreseeable future.
Intel's hype on Ultrabook is really a follower strategy of the MacBook Air, not a leadership strategy.
Intel risks pissing off Apple, whom its working with for the Macbook Air. Will Apple move to ARM once Windows 8 launches?
- If Windows 8 runs on ARM, we Mac users can still run Windows as a VM.
- Apple can potentially get higher battery life with ARM for the same performance.
- Having similar hardware architecture (ARM) for its phones, tablets and laptops makes life easier and allows greater interoperability.
- One of the reasons why Apple designs its own chips, according to an Apple engineer I know, is this: it allows Apple to build in custom features into their chips which are not available from chip vendors like TI, nVIDIA and Intel. If Apple goes ARM, it could build custom features into its Macbooks, just like it does with its iPhones.
- ARM chips designed in-house by Apple could make Apple's bill of materials for its Macbooks lower (Intel's chips are costly, with 55% gross margin!). Macbook prices could come down.
- Apple could differentiate itself from the PC based cheap "Macbook Air clones" Intel is giving birth to.
I think the problem isn't horsepower, it's efficiency... specifically, the code needs to be more efficient - Example: i'm typing in this script window just a bit faster than it's able to be displayed... that's poor code / interface, not a slow PC. (XP machine with IE8)
And optimizing for sub 10 second sleep mode? Why?, my XP netbook running on a little atom processor does sleep & recover from sleep in 5 sec or less - this doesn't need any improvement.
Whether it's a leadership strategy probably depends on whether you define leadership as being perceived as being on the cutting edge or simply market share. Companies can make a lot of money being competent fast followers. Some people will want to pony up the money to have the Apple branded product. Many will be willing to wait a few months and buy Android or Windows to get more choice and better prices.
'Will Apple move to ARM?'
It already did---iPads and iPhones and iPods have always been running on ARM. I suspect that the main reason for Intel CPU in MacBooks was Microsoft Office---MS seems to be very reluctant in cross-compiling their OS/apps.