The tech world is abuzz with speculation about a TD-SCDMA version of Apple iPhone, whose launch is anticipated later this year to specifically target China Mobile subscribers. However, I don’t think now is the time for Apple to move into the TD-SCDMA market.
Today, I’ll flip the question: Does Apple need China Mobile?
At first glance, China Mobile, which saw its corporate earnings and average revenue per user (ARPU) slide in the first half of this year, surely looks like it could use some help from Apple’s iPhone.
But Apple won’t provide any help to China Mobile unless Apple is: a) willing to develop a new iPhone version integrated with a TD-SCDMA modem; and b) prepared to jump into the bloodbath competition of China’s smartphone market.
And here’s the reality: Apple isn’t inclined to do either.
In the most recent press release by IHS iSuppli, a market research firm, analyst Kevin Wang, director of China electronics research, lamented that “Among all the international smartphone brands competing in China, Apple is the only one not offering a product that complies with the domestic TD-SCDMA air standard.” He described the situation as “a huge disadvantage” for Apple, because “TD-SCDMA represents the fastest-growing major air standard for smartphones in China, with shipments of compliant phones expected to rise by a factor of 10 from 2011 to 2016.”
I couldn’t disagree more.
In my opinion, Apple doesn’t need China Mobile. Further, Apple will have little to gain by jumping in on the increasingly crowded TD-SCDMA smartphone bandwagon – especially now. The fact is that iPhone competitors are well ahead of where iPhone is today in China’s mobile market. Samsung already offers several smartphone models that work in China Mobile’s 3G networks; China’s home-grown mobile phone brands are accelerating their smartphone rollout at a heavily discounted price as we speak.
Qualcomm’s pending TD-SCDMA chipset isn’t a good enough reason for Apple to play “Me, too” in China Mobile’s TD-SCDMA market.
It is true that, although it’s the world’s largest cellular network operator based on subscriber numbers, China Mobile has only 10 percent of 680 million subscribers on 3G contracts. In terms of 3G conversion, China’s mobile giant is lagging far behind rival operators in China. Thirty-five percent of China Telecom users are already using 3G, and a little over quarter of China Unicom subscribers are on 3G contracts.
It’s easy to blame the slow pickup of 3G users in China on China Mobile for their decision to go with a proprietary standard nobody else is using. But China Mobile isn’t going to change its mind, and we shouldn’t be dwelling on that particular what-if.
My advice for Apple is not to waste time playing catch-up with the rest of the TD-SCDMA smartphone guys. Sit tight and look ahead. Wait ‘til China Mobile starts building out the TD-LTE (4G) network in 2013.
China Mobile's TD-LTE spec requirements Little discussed in the Western media is the LTE modem spec requirements set forth earlier this year by China Mobile. The world’s largest cellular operator hopes to change the game by stipulating that the new TD-LTE modem, first, needs to be able to operate on TD-SCDMA and GSM inside China. Further, it requires the TD-LTE modem to offer roaming capability on 4G and FDD, not to mention 3G and WCDMA.
Such an ambitious multi-mode, multi-frequency TD-LTE modem strategy will effectively save China Mobile from stagnation in its current proprietary 3G rut. This will allow their upcoming TD-LTE phones to become interoperable with 2G, 3G and 4G networks anywhere in the world.
And that’s precisely when Apple should move into the China Mobile market as a leading supplier of truly multi-lingual iPhones.
There are Apple stores in China, however Apple really drop the ball on it's policy in China.
just earlier this year....
On the social front, iphone is now associated with moral dependance and what's wrong with the modern world...
Thanks for these two links!
Clearly, Chinese people still long for iPhones. But you are saying that Apple iPhone in China is now longer just a device, but it has become more of an "icon" for "what has gone wrong with this world."
Well, it's part of a backslash against "status symbol" culture and actually the meaning of status in China right now. (Essentially, what's wrong with the world part, the world Gaofusuai, Baifumei and fuerdai, while the "normal" world of diaosi is been left behind and rot.)
Iphone (That video I sent you, Which is a not so hidden Nokia ad, but it went viral anyways), BMW (The famous "I would rather cry in a BMW than smile on a bicycle") and LV bags are essentially symbols of that culture.
I did notice the heavy references on BMW and LV in that clip.
Regardless you can afford it or not, young Japanese people are equally brand-conscious as Chinese are, when it comes to BMW, Luis Vuitton, iPhone. There are really no difference!
Qualcomm's MDM 9615 chipset supports TD-SCDMA and TD-LTE. I see no reason why Apple wouldn't use this in iPhone 5, they are already using older versions of this chipset across their line.
So I'd say it is almost certain that the iPhone 5 will support China Mobile's network, now, and in the future as it is upgraded to TD-LTE. The only question is whether Apple and China Mobile can make a deal to officially sell and support the iPhone on their network.
Given that there are millions of jailbroken iPhones already being used on China Mobile's network at Edge speeds, there will be plenty sold to be used on China Mobile's network whether there is a deal or not. A deal would only increase these sales.
I too agree that supporting TD-LTE on iPhone5 is important for Apple to remain in competition with Samsung. Also feel the same as others who has spoken about price competitiveness. Apple needs to do something to keep the price competitive.
Join our online Radio Show on Friday 11th July starting at 2:00pm Eastern, when EETimes editor of all things fun and interesting, Max Maxfield, and embedded systems expert, Jack Ganssle, will debate as to just what is, and is not, and embedded system.