Last week's verdicts in California and South Korea along with previous
rulings in Europe mean the two companies must eventually sit down and
work out a compromise. That won't happen soon, but eventually cooler
heads will prevail. A cross-licensing deal remains a good bet.
Apple isn’t getting much backing in the blogosphere. In fact, the
majority of comments I have seen opposed last Friday’s verdict, and
that's the greater danger Apple faces as consumers digest its verdict.
Indeed, the victory over Samsung has reinforced the impression of Apple
as industry "bully”. Many of the comments in a BBC were critical of the verdict
without actually praising Samsung. Some said the decision would allow
Apple to patent concepts that shouldn’t be protected by patent law.
some contend that Apple can use its patent victory to whittle down
Samsung's dominance of the smartphone market, I don't see it happening.
Android OS devices won't fall off the map (its 68 percent market share
may dip a bit) and Microsoft's Windows OS is unlikely to move much
higher than its current 5.4 percent market share. Any Samsung devices
banned as a result of the decision will be quickly replaced. Samsung
rolls out new devices must faster than Apple, which has so far shifted
to a roughly 10 month iPhone replacement cycle.
aftermath of the patent decision may be short-lived, what will remain
are irritated consumers, an equally disappointed supply base and a
royally ticked off rival-partner in Samsung. As a critical component
supplier to Apple, Samsung is unlikely to shoot itself in the foot. Look
for the two power houses to continue to thrust and parry in court while
looking for ways to live with one another.