If cellular can't displace fixed services across the board, it will become just another wireless bit pipe.
In an interesting research report just released, Analysys Research figures the wireless market it at a critical juncture and proposes three plausible scenarios.
In the first, called substitution, mobile operators gain market advantage and basically displace fixed network services with high bandwidth 3G that provides voice and Internet access.
Another possibility has fixed services operators getting the upper hand. In this convergence scenario, broadband services such as IPTV outperform wireless networks. First enabled Unlicensed Mobile Access (UMA), and then by Internet Multimedia Subsystem (IMS) this outcome ensures that the vast majority of voice calls made in the home are carried on fixed networks.
In the fragmented scenario, wireless technologies compete among themselves, nobody can claim victory, and wireless pretty much like a bit pipe. From a business perspective, the analysts say, companies must have contingency plans for all three scenarios.