Yoram Solomon, one of the wireless gurus at Texas Instruments, has written an article (and a book) such as I've never seen before. Consider this:
- So-called disruptive technologies, which we tend to think of as being bolts of the blue that nobody could have predicted, are, in fact, very predictable.
- Prediction tools are readily available but the trend lines they forecast give us only a "plausible future"not an inevitable one.
- If profiting from predicable disruptive technologies were as easy as drawing trend lines, we'd have a lot more tech billionaires than we have even now.
- The hard part is steering the plausible future into a future in that is profitable for you or your company.
- Politics, in-fighting and backroom deals make the difference.
The genius of Solomon's ideas is to inextricably link technology to markets to people.
Success is very much a matter of having the right people (technology evangelists, design engineers, standards-body reps, etc) in the right place at the right time.
Success is not guaranteed and typically you only get one chance to make a course correctionbut the odds are not bad considering the potential rewards.
The full article is available at Crystal ball: Part 1: Market disruptions create opportunities .