So-called disruptive technologies, which we tend to think of as being "bolts from the blue" that nobody could have predicted, are, in fact, very predictable.
Yoram Solomon, one of the wireless gurus at Texas Instruments, has written an article (and a book) such as I've never seen before. Consider this:
- So-called disruptive technologies, which we tend to think of as being bolts of the blue that nobody could have predicted, are, in fact, very predictable.
- Prediction tools are readily available but the trend lines they forecast give us only a "plausible future"not an inevitable one.
- If profiting from predicable disruptive technologies were as easy as drawing trend lines, we'd have a lot more tech billionaires than we have even now.
- The hard part is steering the plausible future into a future in that is profitable for you or your company.
- Politics, in-fighting and backroom deals make the difference.
The genius of Solomon's ideas is to inextricably link technology to markets to people.
Success is very much a matter of having the right people (technology evangelists, design engineers, standards-body reps, etc) in the right place at the right time.
Success is not guaranteed and typically you only get one chance to make a course correctionbut the odds are not bad considering the potential rewards.
The full article is available at Crystal ball: Part 1: Market disruptions create opportunities .