The SIA lowered its forecast for semiconductor sales, reversing its June predictions. It now says that 2005 sales will increase by 6.8% to $227.6 billion compared with a forecast of a 6% increase in June. In 2006, however, they now expect sales to increase 7.9% compared with an earlier 8.8%; a 10.5% increase for 2007 compared with 11% in June; and a 13.9% increase in 2008 vs. 13.2% in 2008.
Gartner on the other hand sees semiconductor revenue at $235 billion in 2005, with 7.6% growth in 2006 and 5.1% in 2007.
Okay, now I know that number crunching is really important, but it's mid-November and the June SIA figures were published on June 8. If things can change this much in less than 4.5 months, how on earth can there be any faith in projections out three years?
To top it all off, there's a lot of disagreement. iSuppli says 2006, sales will rise 4.3% which is different from the 3.9% it projected in September. Semico now projects that the semiconductor industry will grow 18.2%, double its 8.1% forecast in September. Isn't it difficult to make projections and put dollars behind this kind of wide and rapidly fluctuating range?
Okay, my money's on Semico. How about yours?