Two conflicting reports came in today. One says that 2006 mobile phone revenue will decline from the levels of 2005 (www.mobilehandsetdesignline.com/news/175803660). The second says that the revenue from wireless phones will surpass that of wireline phones for the first time in 2006(www.mobilehandsetdesignline.com/news/175803661).
The first report comes from iSuppli, who says that "worldwide factory revenue from mobile phone production will decline to $109.7 billion in 2006, down 4.7% from $115.1 billion in 2005, which represented a high for the market. Revenue growth will resume in the subsequent years, but only by single-digit percentages. By 2009, revenue will recover back to its 2005 level of $115.1 billion."
The second, from In-Stat, says that, "for the first time, enterprises will spend more for wireless voice service than on wireline in 2006."
Hmm. If both of these reports are to be believed, the wireline guys are in pretty big trouble. I tend to think that this is exaggerated, particularly in the case of wireless spending. The growth path for mobile handsets is too steep for it to hit a decline. But it does make for a curious discussion.