Semiconductor reverse-engineering guru Don Scansen welcomes readers to his new blog.
Welcome to Dew Point. Let me kick things off by giving you some idea of what you should expect to see here. Call it a blog, blather or even legitimize it as a “column.” The description is not that important. I just hope to suggest that my contributions will be regular although much less frequent than the reports you already get from the superb team of EE Times staff writers. It might be a musing, (occasionally, it could be amusing), a rant, speculation, or observation. It will provide analysis and above all else, opinion. If you are interested, check back each week. And comment, suggest, ridicule and even flame me.
But do you care what it’s called? Is there something in a name? Maybe.
We live in an unprecendented age of hyperbole. World-leading companies fill every supplier directory. Heroes are everywhere. With all the hype, spin doctoring and bold, visionary promises, it isn’t easy to uncover the truly viable hardware and ultimately, real market-ready products. Vapor ware. It permeates the technology news. Product launch failures are often well documented, usually in hindsight. History is a great teacher, but it may not distinguish reality from wishful thinking in technology and product roadmaps.
My promise is to provide additional perspective to help you understand whether the vapor touted in a press release has the chance to condense into something real. More to the point, will it quench a consumer thirst? Will the new technology fizzle, drizzle, or saturate the market in a massive thunderstorm? Or maybe delays will push the clouds out to sea where it will be too late to make any difference.
And that brings me to the second point - not just if, but when. In fact, timing usually is the larger issue. The public may not be ready for the most advanced new technology. On the other hand, early demand can lead to such widespread adoption of an inferior technology that the breakthrough is simply too late for the market. As the saying goes, being a step ahead makes you a leader. Two steps and you are a martyr.
And that brings us finally back to the name. You’ve announced your technology and promise it will be the greatest paradigm-shifting, lifestyle-enabling, always-on, energy-saving, multi-touch, multi-core, 3D social media experience. Well done. But when will it really hit the market? When will this vapor condense onto brick and mortar store shelves? That is the Dew Point.