My colleague, Mark LaPedus at EETimes posted an article on: Semico--Seven Predictions for 2011, which included the 2011 memory forecast. 1 Here's a clip...
Sam Caldwell, memory analyst, said: ''What does NAND flash do for an encore in 2011? After a huge year in 2010, many fear NAND flash will be unable to sustain another year of growth. The flash segment revenues will be up 46 percent year over year in 2010, causing some to speculate that these highs, driven by healthy ASPs, are bound to drop.
However, Semico projects a stable pricing environment in 2011 as unit demand continues to grow from the emergence of more tablet PCs, more smartphones, and increased SSD penetration. Consequently, Semico projects 2011 revenues to be up 6 percent to $23 billion on increased unit demand and relatively stable ASPs.
Unfortunately, we do not expect the same encore from the DRAM segment. The DRAM pricing environment has already begun eroding in the fourth quarter of 2010. Semico expects revenues on the year will be down for the DRAM segment, 12.5 percent year over year. While not what the commodity memory manufacturers might have wanted, it's not all that bad given the 76 percent increase in 2010.''
What will be the influence of the tablet PC market on memory? How will memory technology need to evolve to support a growing and changing market? Will the gulf between the needs for consumer/portable (tablet) PCs and servers get even wider? What do you think?