On the one hand I have an un-reasoned, un-researched believe that Global Warming is real and is happening now .. on the other hand...
I’m in a bit of a quandary at the moment. On the one hand I have an un-reasoned, un-researched believe that Global Warming is real and is happening NOW! For example look at the way the polar ice sheets are melting and the way in which glaciers around the world are evaporating away.
On the other hand I went to England in Jan 2010 to visit with my mom who was having a pacemaker installed, and they were having the worst snow for years and years … of course that was until this Christmas that’s just passed, when it was even worse. Even here in Huntsville Alabama we got 8” just a week or so ago.
Of course the climate is a hugely complex beast. The arid and temperate bands tend to move around over time. Ten thousand years ago, for example, what we now know as the Sahara Desert was a lush, tropical paradise.
And then there are some folks who think we’re heading into another Ice Age. And others who say that the carbon dioxide we’re pumping into the atmosphere (that would promote global warming) is actually offsetting the onset of the ice age.
And there are so many things that can go wrong, or at least change in ways that will almost certainly be unfortunate for many of us, like the deep ocean currents stalling or changing direction, or a reversal of the Earth’s magnetic field, or the super volcano under Yellowstone Park letting go…
Still, you have to laugh (as they say), so I must admit that I really enjoyed an animation I just saw in which Global Warming is explained (or not as the case might be):
The biggest problem I see with Global warming may not be the warming itself, but rather the fact that it is so politicized. So much of the data is slanted, misinterpreted (purposely or accidentally), misrepresented, invented or hidden amongst the noise. Virtually everyone involved in the debate has an agenda. There are so many opinions that it's pretty much impossible to tell which opinion is informed and which is not.
I know some people in the more Northern latitudes that would be quite happy with more global warming. If the warming causes the wet and dry bands to shift, who's to say that's a bad thing? Maybe the Sahara will get some rain again. Isn't it about time?
Back in the olden days, like before I was born, if the climate shifted, people would just gradually move their farms to the North or to the South as appropriate. We have cars now, so can't we just move North or South even faster?
It seems fairly easy to empirically determine that warming is taking place. 100 years ago, ice in the Columbia River, near where I live, was not unheard of. It's been decades since the river's even come close to freezing over in these parts. Just looking at old newspaper clippings, one can see that larger snowfalls were much more common 50 years ago than now. Plus my dad had to walk to school uphill both ways in blizzards every day. Glaciers are receding. There's plenty of observational evidence that doesn't require data from a thousand monitoring stations.
What isn't so easy to empirically determine is what is man's contribution to the warming? Is the rising CO2 causal or correlational? Will the world as a whole be better or worse a few degrees warmer? Is the warming a one directional trend or just part of a cycle?
The answers to those questions are the one mired in politics and agendas. As for my thoughts; when it's cold I say I want more global warming. When it's hot, I say I want less global warming. There are no clear thoughts on the subject coming out of my brain.
You wrote: " and they were having the worst snow for years and years … "
Increasing snowfall is not an indicator of colder weather as much as it's an indicator of increased moisture content in the atmosphere. This is something predicted consistently since over 15 years ago, that global warming would lead to increased moisture content and more water in storms in all seasons.
Good Point -- I hadn't thought about that. Also I read somewhere that the warming effects in some layers of the atmosphere were being offset by some other effects in other layers of the atmosphere, but that these other effects wouldn't last...
Any speculation without data is just an educated guess. The data from all sources needs to be available for everybody to view. The interested parties, no matter their assigned standing in life, need to publish their scientific or other methods and conclusions. Once that starts rolling, progress can be made.
And how can we start? Simply, any one with known data should start publishing it on the internet. Various sites will emerge and various conclusions will be drawn. After time, agreement will be reached and can then be acted on.
Without a traceable map of various people's sources and efforts, no consensus will be reached by enough people to make a difference.
Max, per the polar ice sheets: If you look closely, you'll find that anytime someone mentions "decreasing ice volume", they are most often referring only to the Arctic (North Pole). Did you know that ANTarctic (South Pole) ice volume is actually increasing? I won't argue for or against Global Warming... I simply encourage people to do some reading on the "other side" of what they believe, then maybe the truth will be found somewhere in between. There are a lot of people making a living coming up with data on either side, so we would be wise to take their assertions with a bit of healthy skepticism.
Max. Loved the video! Here's a simple fact to debunk the global warming "scientists." I heard this from my meteorologist friend, but it was confirmed at a seminar at Stanford given by one of the "leading experts" in global warming and an adviser to Al Gore:
Historical measurements show that warming takes place BEFORE a rise in atmospheric CO2. The "scientist" claimed that it was indeed puzzling but nonetheless proved that CO2 CAUSED global warming.
I guess they now just have to work on new physics to show how an effect can precede a cause.
That may be the case for natural warming cycles which have occured in the past. But what scientists are primarily concerned about is man-made warming, since the data indicates it is occuring at a far faster rate than the geologically-recorded warming periods of the past.