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Why I ignore most "extrapolations"

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re: Why I ignore most "extrapolations"
4/21/2011 2:43:26 PM
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Dragons, I see you don't believe in the law of the excluded middle.:-)

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re: Why I ignore most "extrapolations"
4/18/2011 9:19:04 AM
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But not to do statistics!

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re: Why I ignore most "extrapolations"
4/18/2011 4:21:38 AM
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Statistics can prove anything: About 30% of traffic accidents are caused by drunk drivers. Therefore 60% of accidents are caused by sober drivers. Therefore it's safer to drive drunk than sober!!!

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re: Why I ignore most "extrapolations"
4/14/2011 1:55:19 PM
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Hello Jeff; Mathematically, you just summed up the entire article by Bill Schweber with three equations.

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re: Why I ignore most "extrapolations"
4/11/2011 2:43:00 PM
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Take the fraction 0/0 (zero over zero). Using extrapolation this is equal to 0, 1 or infinity. 0/3 = 0/2 = 0/1 = 0 therefore 0/0 = 0 3/3 = 2/2 = 1/1 = 1 therefore 0/0 = 1 3/0 = 2/0 = 1/0 = infinity therefore 0/0 = infinity With the ability to skew the numbers like this, I think I missed my calling as a marketer (or politician)

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re: Why I ignore most "extrapolations"
4/3/2011 9:49:04 AM
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Who was it who said "There are Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics"? (Just googled, Mark Twain popularised it but attributed it to Benjamin Disraeli, but that's doubtful....) Very applicable here though, bad statistics and bad extrapolations are closely related. At this rate, nothing we read in a couple of years time will be able to be believed.... :-)

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re: Why I ignore most "extrapolations"
3/31/2011 8:30:44 PM
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At this rate, statistically inaccuracies will totally overwhelm us and swamp us fifty feet deep under discarded AOL CD's in less that twenty-leben years!

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re: Why I ignore most "extrapolations"
3/31/2011 4:16:39 PM
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i love that innumeracy book! i've been using that on all my Lit Major friends for decades! i agree with this article thoroughly, but i do want to make sure we remember the miracle of quasi-math laws: moore's law. that thing is the one and only legitimate one, and it's been in effect for nearly 40 years, though we may be finally coming to the end of it (how many times has that been said about moore's law??).

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re: Why I ignore most "extrapolations"
3/31/2011 3:02:17 PM
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What quasi-mathematical statements turn me off? Predictions about lost productivity (usually in the \$millions or \$billions) because of some sporting or other event that will distract workers.

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re: Why I ignore most "extrapolations"
3/31/2011 2:27:33 PM
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Thats why we have supercomputers calculating system dynamics for critical projects like nuclear energy, space vehicles and global economy. No trending there.

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