Readers feel Japanese IC vendors are the least likely to survive the coming years.
Systems engineers have low confidence in the longterm prospects of foreign IC suppliers--especially Japanese vendors--believing such companies will be either out of business or acquired in the next few years.
Readers were asked to give a thumbs up or thumbs down to the question "Please let us know for each company whether you think they'll be a going concern in five years, or whether they'll be acquired or out of business.."
Thumbs down: In fact, the top five companies most likely, in readers' eyes, to be acquired or go out of business, are, in order Renesas (78%), AMD (75%), NXP (73%), Fujitsu (67%) and Sony (64%).
Thumbs up: The highest engineer confidence ratings are Samsung (97%), Intel and TSMC (95%), Qualcomm (92%), Broadcom (85%) and NVidia (81%).
Engineers have more mixed feelings about companies including STMicroelectronics, Toshiba and UMC.
Top 20 IC companies by revenue, ranked by EE Times' readers on chances for near-term survival:
These kind of polls can be controversial but the benefit to EETimes.com readers is the editors are looking at this data every day and get to interview the CEO's of major companies so they have a perspective on the industry that even the Wall Street Journal doesn't. If one of your suppliers has closed a fab, is losing money or has had management turnover wouldn't you like to know?
Craig, you have a good point here, but I doubt it. Fortunately most engineers are bright in their thoughts and decisions:
1) Comparing NxP with Qualcomm is 'apples and eggs'. These companies do not have much shared markets out there. Engineers know this more often than one might expect. But hey, name me the quantity of engineers working with Qualcomm v.s. NxP? Is it a 1:1000 ?
2) I have a strong feeling that most engineers that filled in the poll are positioned in the US.
Hasn't EE Times just contributed to the demise of these companies by conducting the poll... surely designers who read this are going to avoid selecting components from those companies not expected to be around in a few years time, especially if those designers work on products with long life cycles?
For @krh and @Robotics Developer: help us refine the methodology. Perhaps the core question is not "which companies will be around" but something designed to assess your confidence level in various suppliers (not unlike consumer confidence surveys).
Or maybe it's a rating system that gauges your experience in 4-5 areas (returns, tech service, product breadth etc.).
Again, I'm trying to strike a balance between yielding a relevant, sound confidence report and not forcing readers to spend 30 minutes checking off boxes on the form.
Your input (as was the case for last year's quality survey) will be HUGE!
I would think that EE Times readership would be a good place as any to take the pulse of the marketplace. I am not sure that we the readers can predict with great certainty whether a company will or will not be around in 5 years, but perceptions are very important. Would you design in a device from a company that you felt was not going to be around for long?
Please define what is meant by "foreign IC suppliers".
This seems like a swimsuit competition, with a hard qualifier to know what they will look like in 5 years.
Seriously, what are the qualifications for the judges...???
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