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Moore's Lag Shifts Paradigm of Semi Industry

Moore's Law lagging may be a good thing
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Re: Intel's 14nm progress
TarraTarra!   9/4/2014 3:44:24 PM
Rick, The very fact that you have to clarify that "intel found a way to reduce the cost/transistor" with a node shrink indicates that Moore's law based silicon scaling is gone.



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Re: Intel's 14nm progress
bec0   9/4/2014 3:16:58 PM
Intel is most certainly having battles within, and the proof will be in the cost of goods sold. The jury is still out. Can they stay competitive with the ARM competitors, AND, now that they are moving into the foundry business, can they stay cost/performance/power competitive? Will their 'new' packaging approach really pan-out, especially with cost/yield??

Product, system and design engineers will choose the lowest cost route that will accomplish their objective. It is indeed a great time to be in the semi industry as there are now, will increasingly be, more route options. Much of IoT/IoE will use the follower processes and nodes, as it will be 'good enough performance' (for now at least) at ultra-low power and will be cheap. There will be fewer and fewer, but still some significant users, of whatever is the most advanced highest performing technology out there.  Intel is one of those who is still pushing the envelope in the traditional, brute force way...dimensional scaling.

3DIC, specifically monolithic 3DIC, looks like the technology that bridges the performance needs, low power constraints, and the low cost. CEA Leti is starting to show good numbers, and mobile product QUALCOMM has committed to monolithic for its future. I wouldn't be surprised if we see other major silicon consumers such as Apple follow suit soon. Also, there are a lot of interesting 3DIC/SOI/low-Vt papers in the IEEE S3S Conference Preliminary Program. The technology support is upon us. It will be a must see.

Moreover, m3D looks like it will also enable new architectures and system ideas, whether pure silicon based or heterogeneous...certainly an attraction for the entrepreneurial and the VC community. It is indeed a great time to be in the semi industry. We will no longer be driven by one or two 'leading' silicon vendors.

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Re: Intel's 14nm progress
Or_Bach   9/4/2014 1:36:50 PM
Hi Rick

In this blog we focused on the other 90% of the designs that already recognized the end of Moore's Law. Those designs that do not command $1B market have given up scaling as the NRE contribution to the device cost would eat away any cost reduction that might be achieved by dimension scaling.

So many do agree regarding 28nm – The Last Node of Moore's Law and clearly Intel official view doesn't, but the market action for at least 90% of the design is undeniable.  

The blog was also trying to point out the paradigm shift in the semiconductor eco system that is already taking place as is evident by the action of fab equipment, EDA and IP.

Which bring us to the first comment about 450 mm which been push out - Why 450mm Will Be Pushed-Back Even Further, and Intel closure of Fab 42 and supporting the push out of 450 mm is itself admission that things had changed. 

rick merritt
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Intel's 14nm progress
rick merritt   9/4/2014 12:23:11 PM
@Zvi: I apreicate your efforts to marshall evidence for your point but I feel you give too short shrift to Intel's assertion last month it has found a way to get lower cost per transistor at 14nm.

Do I need to go back to your earlier Intel vs. Intel story?

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Will 450 mm ever happen ?
Violoncelles   9/4/2014 2:32:44 AM
1 saves
Very good paper . With all these facts , one can wonder when 450 mm will come , if it comes .

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