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Ron Neale
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Re: Why the rush..wait for the other shoe to drop
Ron Neale   8/1/2015 12:34:15 PM
Resistion: Moving away from the technology, perhaps the reason for the timing of this annoucement is there is a bad news story on its way. A little bit of PR neutralization never does any harm.

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Why the rush announcement?
resistion   8/1/2015 12:07:36 PM
I am quite perplexed why make this announcement now, after bringing up 3D NAND a few months ago. It is bound to take away interest.The capacity is essentially the same but performance spec is better.

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NVM Computing
TechGuy2015   7/30/2015 1:06:24 AM
If you pay enough attention you will realize that the Aurora supercomputer that Intel just won with the DOE may well be the first system that uses this new memory technology. They clearly hinted that it will use an "unnamed Intel developed non-volatile memory solution". Perhaps that was one of the main selling points and Intel has named that technology as well.

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realjjj   7/29/2015 2:36:32 PM
This is how Intel operates , the funniest i've seen so far is when they announced some smart earbuds and they claimed that "The Intel smart earbuds harvest energy from the smartphone" , except the thing is wired. Sure they had to deal with a few complications but you can't just expand the definition of harvesting to pretty much anything plugged in an outlet.

Anyway, it's better for marketing and IR if they take more credit than they should and disclose misleading numbers that are technicaly accurate. It is a big deal that they'll have production maybe 5 years before others were planning to.

How they talk about applications is in part marketing and in part about strategy. They talk about medicine and cool things ,it's fashionable but it's also a matter of strategy. They will likely just go for high end enterprise at first and no idea if price per GB for such a SSD will be 4$ or 10$, they'll go as high as they can but it's clear that they won't get anywhere close to NAND prices, not because they can't but because they can afford not to. Maybe costs are 2x vs 3D NAND excluding yields, maybe 4 times, haven't even seen anyone count the dies on the displayed wafer to estimate die size yet.  Hard to say for now if it could race with 3D NAND in costs , while factoring in process and numbers of layers but they really have no reason to do that. This 1 facility at 20k wafer starts per month and good yields (with Intel taking half the output) could double Micron's income. So no point in pushing prices down too fast, they can just maximize profits and scale volumes slowly. Maybe gen 2-3 ,with more layers, will get to 1$/GB and start to show up in high end phones, or even sooner at higher prices but just 4-8GB per device and less RAM for power savings.

It kinda is a huge deal but it looks like it will take a while before prices will be allowed low enough for the product to reach a wider market. That's good for them, less so for consumers.

This also puts that Chinese offer for Micron in difficulty. The memory business is always at risk of a supply/demand imbalance and that has lead to a very low valuation for Micron. Having this MRAM (Marketing RAM) changes the dynamic since others seem unlikely to have a competing product soon. Remains to be seen if this doubles Micron's valuation and a sale to China goes from unlikely to impossible.

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