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Elon Musk Sounds Alarm on AI

Tesla chief eyes doomsday scenarios, but AI’s ‘existential risk’ could be to jobs
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realjjj
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Re: Bunch of BS
realjjj   7/25/2017 2:10:00 PM
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Car makers need 3 things urgently.

Electrification, automation and a well defined car as a service plan. An architecture that allows for a 2 year design cycle would be helpful too.

Tesla leads in all of those and Model 3 will fund their needs for capital.

Car as a service for people and goods will expand the number of miles traveled by cars globally to over 50 trillion miles per year. At least 80% of those will be served by car as a service and even at a relatively modest average of 17.5 cents per mile, that would be over 7 trillions in revenues per year for the industry. Even when the industry is halfway there, Tesla only needs 25% market share for Musk to be worth a trillion. Tesla is gonna have lots of fun in the next decade while other car makers are not even trying to remain relevant, they still want to produce and sell ICE when ICE will cost more to produce, run on much costlier fuel and nobody will want to buy cars anymore anyway. Can't wait to see how that one goes.

Now pls go ahead and explain how autonomy is a no go because lawyers, rain and... w/e you have on the menu today.

realjjj
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Re: ai
realjjj   7/25/2017 1:30:10 PM
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Rodney Brooks must think that Musk and Hawking are complete and utter idiots if he makes this kind of childish argument.

Musk sees the current forms as Automation not AI. When he talks about AI, he means AI not the rudimentary technology used today.

The fact that one's refrigerator is working is no proof that global warming is a hoax.

Musk uses the current advances to justify his expectation for exponential progress and the development of AI at some point soon- soon can be assumed as decades, he's not a short term guy.

Ariella
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Re: ai
Ariella   7/25/2017 12:27:31 PM
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Another response to Musk fromRodney Brooks appears here: https://techcrunch.com/2017/07/19/this-famous-roboticist-doesnt-think-elon-musk-understands-ai/

There are quite a few people out there who've said that AI is an existential threat: Stephen Hawking, astronomer Royal Martin Rees, who has written a book about it, and they share a common thread, in that: they don't work in AI themselves. For those who do work in AI, we know how hard it is to get anything to actually work through product level.

Here's the reason that people – including Elon – make this mistake. When we see a person performing a task very well, we understand the competence [involved]. And I think they apply the same model to machine learning. [But they shouldn't.] When people saw DeepMind's AlphaGo beat the Korean champion and then beat the Chinese Go champion, they thought, 'Oh my god, this machine is so smart, it can do just about anything!' But I was at DeepMind in London about three weeks ago and [they admitted that things could easily have gone very wrong].

EELoser
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Bunch of BS
EELoser   7/25/2017 12:21:21 PM
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Realjjj, your predictions are non-sensicle and idiotic.

Tesla has been around since 2003 and never shown a profit and your predicting Elon Musk to be a trillonaire one day.....what a joke.  The only quarters he had a small profit was when he was selling off pollution credits to other car companies.

He aim's high and gets it done?  Not exactly.  Look at his track record and projections on sales all overly optimistic.  Solar powered roof shingles that cost over 30K or more for a partial roof and return almost nothing in electricity?  Yeah I'm sure that will succeed..He bailed out his cousins and family with that solar deal.  

Oh the human race is so aggressive and terrible we need to escape the planet blah blah blah.  Why dont you start first?

realjjj
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CEO
Re: Inevitable
realjjj   7/25/2017 11:47:41 AM
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Zuck with his fight against net neutrality has made it pretty clear that his own interest is above all else so assuming he's honest is a mistake. He's the enemy here, the one willing to risk killing us all for an extra buck and the reason we need regulators.

Musk is not trying to slow down development, he just wants the risks to be factored in. He's investing in Open AI and the brain-computer interface entity and those are much more forward looking than what FB is focusing on as FB's financial interest dictate a short term focus. AI is important to Tesla too for both autonomy and UI.

There are already questions about the role machine learning has played in some elections, see Cambridge Analytica and an AI or a robot doesn't have to be fully autonomous to create problems. He uses simplistic examples easy to understand by the broader public but that's a reasonable strategy.

Hawking has warned about AI many times too and neither him or Musk are trying to diminish the value AI brings. Musk has too much faith in the human race as it is, he wants to let us escape this planet and chances are that's not gonna be much of a positive for the universe as we are a pretty aggressive invasive species.

Musk is also far better positioned to take advantage of AI. If they execute well with Tesla, Musk might be the first human being to reach a one trillion dollars networth, in 10-15 years from now . His AI efforts do aim high, he tends to aim high and get it done so betting against him is not a good idea. He only has 2 areas of focus, transportation (Tesla, SpaceX, Hyperloop) and AI but in a broad sense and long term not automation.

EELoser
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Freelancer
help robots are taking over.
EELoser   7/25/2017 11:05:36 AM
sounds like the movie Terminator.  

Those car making robots are going to pull themselves out of their mountings and kill everyone at the Gigafactory as long as their extension cords stay plugged in.

I think its more likely a typical low-educated, highly-tattooed, warehouse worker Nevadan will throw his cigarette where he shouldn't and burn the Gigafactory to the ground.

Musk's robots will create jobs.....create jobs for Bankruptcy attorneys and auction houses when his company goes under and is sold off in pieces unless he shows a profit.

 

Ariella
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Re: Inevitable
Ariella   7/25/2017 11:04:15 AM
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I would quite equates scientists with Musk and Zuckerberg, but that appears to be the division in the views on AI now. See https://arstechnica.com/gadgets/2017/07/elon-musk-mark-zuckerberg-artificial-intelligence/

"I have pretty strong opinions on this. I am optimistic," Zuckerberg said during a Facebook Live broadcast on Sunday. "And I think people who are naysayers and try to drum up these doomsday scenarios... I just don't understand it. It's really negative and in some ways I think it is pretty irresponsible."

Then, responding to Zuckerberg's "pretty irresponsible" remark, Musk said on Twitter: "I've talked to Mark about this. His understanding of the subject is limited."

It's a little unfair to call Zuckerberg's understanding "limited"—Facebook has arguably put a lot more time, money, and research into AI than Musk's companies. I suspect the real bone of contention between the two nerds has more to do with time scales: Zuckerberg's stance on AI is that it will massively improve the human condition (and probably Facebook ad revenues) in the short term, but Musk is more concerned with what happens further down the line, when it's too late to put the sentient robot cat back in the bag.

 

Ariella
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Re: Inevitable
Ariella   7/25/2017 9:30:29 AM
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Only a jury has to be unanimous.  Einstein was a very bright person who didn't buy the theory of quantum mechanics advanced by another very bright person. So intelligence alone does not necessarily mean that person is correct, but we only move forward by allowing people to express their views and offer their support rather than by silencing anyone who offers a view that is not considered mainstream.

EELoser
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Freelancer
Re: Inevitable
EELoser   7/24/2017 5:34:04 PM
Yeah and several bright people do NOT share his concern and call him irresponsible:

 

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-4725990/Zuckerberg-slams-Musk-s-AI-doomsday-irresponsible.html

 

 Theres lots of 'bright' people out there that have no common sense and are alarmists.

 

 

Ariella
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Re: Inevitable
Ariella   7/24/2017 5:24:12 PM
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@dt_hayden My impression is that Musk is advocating for universal regulations to be adopted by all regions.

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