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Time for a return to the customer-backed JV foundry?

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mike655mm
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re: Time for a return to the customer-backed JV foundry?
mike655mm   4/20/2012 10:31:06 PM
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Interesting article. Intel does seem to hold quite a few important cards in their hand. I think one of the reasons that AMDs Athlon & Opteron products didn't do better is because Intel is a lot more than just design & archtecture. When their designs weren't as good as their competition, they were still to out-muscle them with faster transistors and lower die costs due to their powerful manufacturing division. Intel held about a process node advantage over AMD during all of that time and even when AMD was architecture-competitive, they were still beaten by process technology & Intel's lower costs. And now it's history. AMD is w/o a fab. I expect Intel to do a repeat of this bit of history with the ultra mobiles. They have even more of a commanding lead in process technology than a few years ago and now have a competitive smartphone. They'll quickly move it to 22nm and to 14nm within a year after that. They just forecasted that ~25% of their mainstream CPU product shipments in Q2 with be 22nm. This is a huge volume. It would seem that their 22nm process is pretty healthy. Die supply for the very much smaller Medfield chips and its successor will never be an issue. Intel has been hitting on all cyclinders for several years & I expect them to start pulling ahead by the end of 2012 and extending that lead in 2013 with 14nm.

PV-Geek
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re: Time for a return to the customer-backed JV foundry?
PV-Geek   4/21/2012 1:17:18 AM
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Qualcomm is much more likely to use their money to help the other foundries catch up to TSMC than to build their own fab. There mistake was waiting so long to start. They appear to be spreading it around now, but it will take awhile. 28nm may be old news by then. It might make more sense to help one of more fabs pull in the jump to 14nm with FinFets than to pour the money into 28nm capacity.

chipmonk0
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re: Time for a return to the customer-backed JV foundry?
chipmonk0   4/21/2012 2:33:46 AM
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factors like the traditional lack of transparency among certain cultures ( so far as being open about process maturity, yields etc at finer nodes ) have become a deal breaker

escher
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re: Time for a return to the customer-backed JV foundry?
escher   4/21/2012 12:49:12 PM
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This article shows how important it is to have your own manufacturing. Besides the points raised in this article, there is the additional risk of foundries creating their own products directly or indirectly (Samsung anyone) in which case the fabless companies would have funded their competition.

resistion
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re: Time for a return to the customer-backed JV foundry?
resistion   4/21/2012 6:23:22 PM
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If only one company could do 14 or 10 nm, it might still be cheaper (or even safer) to stay back one or two nodes, where there is more competition and a broader base of companies in support.

KB3001
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re: Time for a return to the customer-backed JV foundry?
KB3001   4/22/2012 12:43:10 PM
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I agree with Peter here. What Qualcomm and Co. need is a long term view. Intel had a process technology advantage because of the economies of scale of its x86 processor business. That is no longer the case (the PC market is no longer the cash cow it used to be and x86 in mobile does not make much sense IMO). So if Qualcomm and Co. invest heavily in R&D in the form of a JV fab, ultimately they will bridge the gap and surpass Intel in leading process technology.

resistion
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re: Time for a return to the customer-backed JV foundry?
resistion   4/22/2012 3:25:37 PM
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Ok, but then these guys need to run fast without tripping over each other.

Peter Clarke
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re: Time for a return to the customer-backed JV foundry?
Peter Clarke   4/23/2012 9:24:50 AM
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Well one of the points that i tried to tease out in this analysis/opinion piece is that Qualcomm and others may need to enter into a Crolles-style joint venture that is as much about process development as it is about manufacturing capacity. OR watch an IDM continue to eat their lunch even when there is a foundry oversupply situation.

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