To right the ship, PC OEMs
are coming out with Ultrabooks and other ultrathin and power efficient
computers that seek to bring many of the more popular features of
tablets to something that more closely resembles a traditional PC. Windows 8, which
supports touchscreen and features a tiled "fast and fluid" GUI, can
help with that. But to date, sales of Ultrabooks especially have been
disappointing, largely because the cost of the devices remains too high
(in the $1,000 range).
In its report circulated Tuesday, IHS
poses several key questions for the PC market, including whether
smartphones, tablets and other such gadgets will outsell PCs during the
crucial holiday season.
According to IHS, there are promising
signs that a strong rebound for PCs could occur next year. Though IHS
recently cut its forecast for Ultrabook sales in 2012 and 2013, the firm
said Ultrabooks and other ultrathin computers have the potential to
revive the PC market. The addition of Windows 8 to the mix could prove
potent and irresistible to consumers, IHS said.
The Windows 8 start screen, featuring application tiles.
But neither IHS's analysts, nor the millions of people with a vested interest in keeping the PC thriving, are sure whether new spins on the PC will stand up to
the powerful smartphone and tablet markets.
There are two questions here: (1) whether Win8 would help boost PC sales, and (b) whether tablets and smartphones are taking away from PC sales.
For a laptop or desktop PC, everything I've read about Win8 says that it offers no improvement over Win7. On the contrary, if anything. One problem a lot of people seem to have is the lack of the "start" button. Then again, there are third party apps that restore that start button, in Win8. Win8 appears to be tuned for touch screen type devices, and everything I read says that when used with keyboard/mouse and more distant screen, it is or feels compromised.
As to tablets and smartphones, my take is, only the Surface or similar, which can work like PCs, would potentially take away the need for PCs. Or the smartphone/PC hybrid concept:
Aside from these hybrid devices, which IMO could take away from bona fide PC roles, if PC sales are slacking off it is because people are spending their holiday money on portable toys instead, and/or because the PC market may be reaching saturation?
I'm curious, actually. Is the rate of toaster sales increasing rapidly? I doubt it but don't really know. And yet, few people would conclude that toasters are no longer in demand! (My wife likes "toaster ovens." So maybe that's a wrinkle, similar to comparison between desktop and notebook PCs? Overall, I doubt the sales of these devices is increasing.)
Agree fully with the previous poster. The death of the PC has been mis-characterized ever since the iPad came out.
That IHS graphic presents a distorted picture, in that it shows bars starting from something other than zero. People visually integrate the change on a bar chart, and the graphic violates some basic principles of presenting data. Very non-Tufte, and a pretty poor graphic to boot. To paraphrase Dona Wong, a bar chart starting at something other than zero is like a misspelled word in a headline. Paint the picture correctly and the situation doesn't look so dire, it looks like noise in a flat market.
The IHS graphic is indeed visually misleading - it sure looks foreboding, but in fact the "decline" is merely 1.2%.
The real story is more that the PC industry has hit it's peak in shipments... which is a totally different message than an industry "collapsing".
Steve, I agree with you on both counts. The graphic does look pretty foreboding. Still, the first decline in 11 years is significant. Not a collapse, but as you say, this may well mean PC shipments have peaked.
Tablets cannot do everything a PC can do. However, they can do some things a PC can do and some of those things they can do better. It just so happens that those things are the things that most people do most of the time with computers.
I've been playing with the Beta version of Windows 8 on my MacBook Pro using the Parallels virtualization software for a few months now. Yes, Windows 8 has some new eye candy with the tiles and Microsoft has managed to cobble together a single OS for both touch and mouse devices. Once you click the Desktop tile it looks and works like Windows 7. Apple has a two OS approach where desktop/laptop users have Mac OS X while iPhone/iPad users get iOS6. With iOS6 I do miss having multiple user accounts on the iPad because everyone in my family wants to use this device when I get home from work.
If Win8 is as big a disaster as Vista, ME, etc., I'll wait for Win9. My experience w/ Microsoft is that their new releases follow a pattern of junk ... decent ... junk ... decent, almost as though they rush something to market, then take the time to fix it in the next revision. XP and Win7 (both 32 and 64-bit) have served me well, but I had a LOT of grief w/ Vista, which did not play well w/ many of my apps.
Yes, I have been toying with Win 8 since Aug 2011 (stand alone and in Parallels on Mtn Loin.)
There is a point that I am not seeing discussed.
Redmond continued to re-tool the sub-systems across the board. It now runs the O/S IE and MS Speech in less than 1GB of RAM on the 32-bit version.
The 64-bit version has a number of security improvements over the 32-bit version.
Both are more responsive and have a greatly reduced attack surface.
I'll grant you the end user doesn't care about security (until they do), and having a more responsive machine for $40 seems like a fair trade.
I don't see Windows-8 as a savior for PCs. (I also don't think PCs are not in need of being saved either.) In fact, quite the opposite might be true for PC sales.
All my machines in my household are dual-boot machines for Linux and Windows. I just bought a new one less than a month ago, because I found out that dual booting will become a real pain with Windows-8. (Linux vendors are scrambling hard to overcome the ridiculous hurdles Microsoft built into the OS.) If you use dual-boot machines, don't wait for Windows-8. I think all of these will be smoothed out again by the time Windows-9 comes out, but Windows-8 is no boon for PCs(only for tablets perhaps.)
A friend tells me of the day in the past when microwave oven sales fell off. Seems most households had purchased one, and there was no need for 2 of them.
A pc is overkill for most homes - read emails and surf the web. We now have TVs that can do that and more (netflix, hulu, ..) as well as blueray players.
How many people really need a PC because they are writing software, which you can probably do on an ipad, but let's assume it has million's of lines of code, requires TB's of data, and huge screens with mutli-gpu's.
Seems like a kindle or $99 tablet can browse the web, read & write emails, write small documents (~100 pages), play music, purchase online, ... Why do so many people need a PC? A 10kb spreadsheet is fine on a phone. A 100MB spreadsheet might only work on a pc. ...