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Posted: 10/26/98
 Intel spreads CPU tentacles
Indeed, the old adage that you can't tell the players without a scorecard is an apt description of the coming lineup. The big surprise is Intel's apparently renewed emphasis on its 32-bit CPU road map. This is a clear indication that today's X86 architectures won't be obsolete any time soon. Rather, they will coexist with-or perhaps overshadow-the 64-bit Merced family into the next decade. Merced continues to elicit the most interest. However, Intel's enforcement of the semiconductor industry's equivalent of omertư-the Mafia code of silence-has shut down the rumor mill. Only Intel's official pronouncements are left to fill the void. In this regard, Intel emphasized at the forum that the design of Merced is proceeding apace. Stephen Smith, vice president of the company's microprocessor products group, said that OEMs will be getting samples in mid-1999, with broader processor shipments set for mid-2000. "We've completed the full register-transfer-level logic design. We're in the final stages of validating that," Smith reported. "We've worked for the last six months on timing. We're now ramping our final circuit layout." That's good news for OEMs committed to Merced. However, by presenting such an optimistic progress report, Intel has boxed itself into a corner. "Because of our position in the industry, we know that people are closely watching where we are and they're going to look to us to deliver," Smith told me. "We are executing according to our schedule and we're providing updates proactively." While readying Merced, Intel is also creating a cornucopia of niche CPUs. On the 32-bit front alone, there's Willamette, Tanner, Cascades and Foster. Of these, the most notable is Foster, which will feature a new 32-bit microarchitecture clocked at 1 GHz and up. The IA-64 line, of which Merced is the first incarnation, will grow to include processors code-named McKinley, Madison and Deerfield. In marketing terms, Intel has every desktop, workstation and server base covered. It's well-positioned to fend off potentially strong future competition such as Compaq's 21364 and Sun's UltraSparc III. However, the long-term challenge for Intel and its competitors won't be designing processors so much as it will be manufacturing them in untested submicron processes at economically viable yields.
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Is Intel Corp.'s processor road map too much of a good thing? From evidence presented at the recent Microprocessor Forum, the company's battle plan for the next decade entails fragmenting its architectures into a dizzying array of niche CPUs.