Yole said if it excludes memories its analysis indicates that 3D-TSV could represent more than 6 percent of the total semiconductor industry by 2015.

Yole said it has identified clear motivations for going to 3-D technologies, mostly for cost reasons. Several players are driven by reliability motivations since higher reliability systems can be manufactured through the vertical integration of several layers using 3-D TSVs instead of wire-bonds or Flip-chip interconnects, using 3-D stacked wafer level optics instead of plastic injection molded lens modules.

3-D, Yole continued, appears as an enabling driver for the introduction of integrated systems into harsh and space constraint application environments such as in the automotive, bio, telecom and consumer markets.

Moving to applications, Yole highlighted that WL-CSP CMOS image sensors will move to "real" 3D-TSV architectures in 2008. MEMS will also take advantage of 3-D so as to combine the MEMS with its ASIC while Wireless SiPs combine heterogeneous layers all together, added Yole.

The market research firm emphasized the imminence of the 3-D stacked memories market. It is mainly driven by RAM based memories meanwhile more and more Flash memory is set to be combined in the future within MCP, PoP/SiP packages, cell-phone card-slots and SSDs.

Yole then cited logic-based 3D-SoCs that are due to take off in the next two to three years. This type of 3D-IC integration will be achieved via the progressive segregation of several layers: 3D Partitioning of embedded memories, RF, Analog and I/Os layers from the logic base chip.

In its reports, Yole said it encourages the development of 3-D technology platforms such as 3-D WLP Encapsulation platform, 3-D TSV Stack platform and 3-D interposer Module platform.

Barriers, however, remain to enter full scale 3D IC integration, according to Yole. Those barriers are test, 3D EDA design tools, thermal management and 300-mm equipments availability. Efforts are being done in 3D EDA Design and Thermal Management software tools but Yole said it believes "it is a real challenge for the industry to get the tools ready by 2011."

Finally, Yole noted that the availability for 300-mm 3D-TSV equipments is just a question of time. 300-mm tools clusters have been shipped in 2008 for production pilot-lines. Yole's latest market analysis indicates that the Equipment Market for 3D-TSV manufacturing tools will rapidly expand above $1 billion by 2013.