Design Article
U.S. projected to be top oil producer by 2020
Anne-Francoise Pele
11/13/2012 11:00 AM EST
PARIS – The United States is projected to become the world's largest oil producer by 2020, overtaking Saudi Arabia by the mid-2020s, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
In the 2012 edition of the World Energy Outlook, IEA explained that the growth in oil and natural gas output in the United States will lead to a sea-change in global energy flows. The United States is expected to become a net exporter of natural gas by 2020 and to be almost self-sufficient in energy, in net terms, by 2035.
This accelerates the switch in direction of international oil trade towards Asia, putting a focus on the security of the strategic routes that bring Middle East oil to Asian markets. Almost 90 percent of Middle Eastern oil exports is expected to be drawn to Asia by 2035, IEA noted.
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“North America is at the forefront of a sweeping transformation in oil and gas production that will affect all regions of the world, yet the potential also exists for a similarly transformative shift in global energy efficiency,” stated IEA executive director Maria van der Hoeven.
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Fossil fuels will remain dominant in the global energy mix, said IEA. While the regional picture for natural gas varies, the global outlook over the coming decades seems bright, with demand increasing by 50 percent to 5 trillion cubic meters in 2035.
Unconventional gas will account for about half of the increase in global gas production to 2035, with most of this coming from the United States, Australia and China, according to IEA.
By bolstering and diversifying sources of supply, tempering demand for imports (as in China) and fostering the emergence of new exporting countries (as in the United States), IEA report notified that unconventional gas can accelerate movement towards more diversified trade flows, putting pressure on conventional gas suppliers and on traditional oil-linked pricing mechanisms for gas.
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