Design Article
2012 Modular Instrument Predictions: Results
Larry Desjardin
1/11/2013 8:22 AM EST
Big Physics
Deep breath. This was my boldest prediction. For those who wonder what the “coming disruption” means, let me phrase it as an equation:
Nash Equilibrium + Porter’s 5 Forces = Disruptive change for T&M
If you don’t recall Nash and Porter, it may be time to dust off the old MBA and econ textbooks and refresh your memory. These two concepts together explain how disruptive shifts occur in markets, and explain the modular adoption rate in automated test in particular.
My verdict? The evidence is all around us. Not only does the growth differential appear to be increasing, as shown in Prediction 1, but look at where modular is growing now: RF and semiconductor. There is huge headroom for growth in each of these markets, and the number of modular solutions focused at these segments is rapidly increasing. This will only accelerate the growth. Like a pencil balanced on its point that starts to lean, we have reached the tipping point. We are now living in the disruption.
Final Score: 7-3
I’ll consider 7-3 a passing grade. But what about 2013 you ask? That, dear readers, is a subject for a future blog.
Larry Desjardin is a Contributing Editor to TMW has a blog on ModularView Profile at UBM Tech publication Test and Measurement World. He can be reached at larry@modularmethods.com.
7. Big Physics embraces AXIe. This one is still pending and looks promising. I know of a research lab that has built their own AXIe-compatible hardware for big physics. I may write about this in a future column. But I haven’t seen reports of widespread adoption…yet. 4-3
8. PXI software standards bring new levels of compatibility. The PXISA technical committee continues to make good progress on the software requirements for multi-vendor solutions. Not only that, but the AXIe consortium is adopting those same standards so that AXIe products appear as PXI when integrated together. Great idea. 5-3
9. One large VXI to PXI/AXIe conversion. VTI Instruments has essentially brought their dynamic signal analyzer measurement suite from VXI to PXI, while Teradyne offers a PXI-based high-speed serial tester to complement their VXI functional tester. OK, that's two, not one. Still counts. 6-3
10.More evidence of the coming disruption of modular instruments.
Deep breath. This was my boldest prediction. For those who wonder what the “coming disruption” means, let me phrase it as an equation:
Nash Equilibrium + Porter’s 5 Forces = Disruptive change for T&M
If you don’t recall Nash and Porter, it may be time to dust off the old MBA and econ textbooks and refresh your memory. These two concepts together explain how disruptive shifts occur in markets, and explain the modular adoption rate in automated test in particular.
My verdict? The evidence is all around us. Not only does the growth differential appear to be increasing, as shown in Prediction 1, but look at where modular is growing now: RF and semiconductor. There is huge headroom for growth in each of these markets, and the number of modular solutions focused at these segments is rapidly increasing. This will only accelerate the growth. Like a pencil balanced on its point that starts to lean, we have reached the tipping point. We are now living in the disruption.
Final Score: 7-3
I’ll consider 7-3 a passing grade. But what about 2013 you ask? That, dear readers, is a subject for a future blog.
Larry Desjardin is a Contributing Editor to TMW has a blog on ModularView Profile at UBM Tech publication Test and Measurement World. He can be reached at larry@modularmethods.com.
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