SAN JOSE, Calif. Not all analysts are raising their respective chip forecasts despite a surge for ICs in the first quarter.
European market research firm Future Horizons (Sevenoaks, England) in a report on Tuesday (May 31) re-iterated its prediction that the semiconductor market will grow by 15 percent in 2005. "The relative strong first quarter up 13.2 percent verses Q1-2004 has seen everyone scramble for their forecast revisions," said Malcolm Penn, chief executive of Future Horizons. "Not so at Future Horizons."
But investment banking firm Pacific Crest Securities Inc. has jumped on the bandwagon and raised its IC forecast to positive 4.2 percent growth in 2005, up from minus 4 percent in its original prediction.
Pacific Crest (Portland, Ore.) attributed the new forecast to stable chip demand and average selling prices (ASPs) in the marketplace. Overall, the IC industry is expected to hit $222.1 billion in terms of sales in 2005, up 4.2 percent from $212.7 billion in 2004, according to Pacific Crest.
IC unit growth is expected to jump 3 percent in 2005 over 2004, compared to plus 1 percent in the previous forecast, according to Pacific Crest. ASPs are expected to climb 1 percent in 2005, verses minus 5 percent in its previous projection.
In recent days, Gartner, IC Insights and others have also raised their respective forecasts. And the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics (WSTS) group on Tuesday (May 31) raised its semiconductor forecast, by projecting moderate growth over the next two years verses a relatively flat market. However, one analyst said that he takes all chip forecasts with a large grain of salt.
Meanwhile, in its new forecast, the WSTS projects that the IC market will reach $226.5 billion in 2005, up 6.3 percent over 2004. In 2004, the chip market hit $213.0 billion, up 28 percent over 2003.
In 2006, the WSTS projects the IC market will hit $238.2 billion, up 5.2 percent over 2005. In 2007, the WSTS projects the IC market will reach $263.3 billion, up 10.5 percent (see May 31 story).