SAN JOSE, Calif. -- Fab-tool capital spending is down, but not out. So, which chip maker will buy IC-equipment in the near future--and who will slam the door on vendors' faces?
Gartner Inc. this week lowered its capital spending forecast, but the firm sees a recovery in 2009. Others agreed, giving vendors some hope at next week's Semicon West trade show in San Francisco.
''We expect a cautious tone at this year's (Semicon West) show due to the challenging business environment, as our checks suggest 3Q '08 orders will flat to down 10 percent. We believe 3Q '08 revenue will decline 5-10 percent sequentially and 4Q '08 growth will be in low-single-digits, worse than consensus' view,'' said Edwin Mok, an analyst at Needham & Co. LLC, in a report.
''However, we continue to believe that bookings will improve in 4Q '08 pointing to higher revenues in 1H09,'' he said.
In the report, Mok listed which chip maker is expected to buy fab gear--and who will ignore sales calls from vendors.
*Big chip houses: Samsung, Intel, and Toshiba ''will remain committed to their plans in 2H '08,'' he said. ''While TSMC will spend less in capex in 2H '08, we see higher spending in 2009.''
*Another foundry: ''We see increased shipments to Chartered in 2H '08,'' he said.
Hit and Miss
*Memory houses: ''We believe Nanya/MeiYa will delay tool ordering until 4Q '08 (later than previously expected), and Rexchip R2 will be booked in 4Q '08 (as expected),'' he said. ''We also expect Hynix and IM Flash to resume tool ordering in 1H '09.''
*Advanced Micron Devices Inc.: ''We believe upside to foundry cap-ex could come from AMD if it decides to aggressively outsource production,'' he added.