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Updated: NAND capex seen dropping 59% in 2009

2/19/2009 07:00 PM EST
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R Beal
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re: Updated: NAND capex seen dropping 59% in 2009
R Beal   2/19/2009 8:29:39 PM
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Here is something that makes more sense, 59% reduction in CAPEX, not capacity. I guess they both start with "cap"...however, that is a huge error in the article, completely different message! ----- DRAMeXchange has recently adjusted its forecast for NAND flash bit growth in 2009. Bit growth will decrease from 132.8% in 2008 to 63.5% in 2009, compared to 81% that was previously estimated. In addition, the research firm has estimated that combined capex at NAND flash chipmakers will decline 58.9% in 2009, compared to a 27.7% cut in the previous year. -----

R Beal
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re: Updated: NAND capex seen dropping 59% in 2009
R Beal   2/19/2009 8:19:27 PM
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I've got a hard time believing the 59% statistic. What is it based on...300mm equivalent wafer starts? Some kind of dollar-based capacity? Could be wrong, but I don't think there are any 300mm NAND fabs that have gone offline, and 300mm drives the vast majority of the capacity. Is DRAMexchange making some critical assumptions about some 300mm fabs closing their doors?

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