SANTA CLARA, Calif. -- During the Flash Memory Summit here last week, one executive made some bold predictions about the NAND business.
Eli Harari, founder, chairman and chief executive of SanDisk Corp., made the predications during a keynote. He also warned that the NAND industry is at the ''crossroads,'' as there is a ''disconnect'' between future capacity requirements and demand.
Here are Harari's predictions:
1. Recovery seen. NAND is moving towards a path towards recovery after a downturn. Current supply/demand picture is in better balance.
2. ASPs do not fall as fast as before. According to analysts, annual price reductions for NAND will be around 40 percent from 2010 to 2013. This compares to annual and actual price reductions for NAND at about 60 percent from 2005 to 2009.
3. Multi-bit rules. Market embraces 3-bit-per-cell (x3) and 4-bit-per-cell (x4) in the 2009 to 2015 timeframe. Currently, 2-bit-per-cell is mainstream.
4. Managed NAND. The key to NAND are the controllers, which manage the operations in various applications like solid-state drives (SSDs). There is a shift from raw NAND--or discrete components--to managed NAND.