LONDON The 2009 IC market, measured on a quarterly basis and especially with regard to unit volume shipments, has displayed a classic "V-shaped" recovery, according to market research organization IC Insights Inc. (Scottsdale, Ariz.).
Following two quarters that logged 30-year record falls in IC shipments 2Q09 and 3Q09 are set to be highest sequentially quarterly growth rates in 30 years.
Quarterly shipments fell from a peak of 44.1 billion units in 3Q08 to 34.9 billion in 4Q08 and to 28.0 billion units in 1Q09, according to IC Insights. These numbers represent falls of 20.9 percent and 19.8 percent respectively. This is the biggest drop in the 30 years of chip market measurement and was caused by a mix of an efficient supply chain adjusting to lower levels of demand and panic by electronic system producers who slashed inventory, often over-reacting.
The 2Q09 reflected a bounce back to 35.2 billion units, a growth of 25.7 percent, and 3Q09 is predicted to be 41.5 billion units, a growth of 17.6 percent with a slight softening in 4Q09 to 40.9 billion units. This would put second-half shipments of ICs in 2009 at the same level they were at in the second half of 2007.
When the two largest declines in quarterly growth rates are immediately followed by the two highest quarterly growth rates, a classic "V-shaped" has occurred. This performance during the worst global recession for 63 years indicates strong underlying demand for electronic systesm, said IC Insights.
IC insights predicted that 4Q09 IC unit shipments would be down 1 percent from 3Q09 as the seasonal strength of the market slows toward the end of the quarter. But with only slight seasonal strength the fourth quarter could be up dispelling fears of a W-shaped recession.
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