SAN JOSE, Calif. -- Lithography equipment vendor ASML Holding NV (Veldhoven, The Netherlands) this week made a strong profit on increased sales in Q1 and predicted a sustained semiconductor lasting into 2011.
Here's what analysts said about the results from ASML:
G. Dan Hutcheson, chief executive of VLSI Research:
''The trouble is that you can't get tools (from ASML). The lead times have extended.''
Analysts Andrew Gardiner, Youssef Essaegh and C.J. Muse of Barclays Capital:
''ASML's 1Q10 results provided evidence of a prolonged semiconductor capex cycle and increased our conviction in forecasts of continued order and earnings
Leading DRAM vendors, namely Samsung and Hynix, drove orders in 1Q, but we expect demand to spread to tier two vendors in 2Q and 3Q10. NAND vendors are just beginning to awake in terms of ordering, but we see initial moves by Toshiba followed by IM Flash and eventually Samsung and Hynix as well. TSMC continues to lead the way in foundry, but we expect the tier two vendors to begin ordering in 2H10. Finally, our research indicates that ASML have gained market share at Intel for the 22-nm node, which is a further incremental driver.
Similar to last quarter, the company guided for flat sequential bookings in 2Q10 verses our expectations of a further increase. While bookings of around 1.00 billion euros ($1.36 billion) is below our prior estimate of 1.17 billion euroes ($1.59 billion), we view this miss as primarily due to delays in order recognition at Intel Micron Flash (we estimate four tools at 35 million euroes each [$47.5 million]). These orders are now likely to slip to 3Q10, although we still expect shipments in 2H10 so there is no impact to our full year financial estimates.
As far as other 2Q10 drivers, we expect tier two DRAM players, namely Nanya/Inotera, Micron et al, to increase orders, following the lead of the Korean vendors in 1Q10. We also model TSMC to continue investing at similar levels. Finally, we forecast ASML to begin
gaining share at Intel and for orders to begin in 2Q10, although the company has not confirmed such a win.''