SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. -- The 2001 semiconductor recession is getting so bad that it now looks a recovery could come sooner rather than later, said IC Insights Inc., which is calling for a double-digit rebound in integrated circuit sales next year.
The market research firm today (March 30) said it has lowered its 2001 forecast to show a 9% decline in IC revenues from $128 billion in 2000. But at the same time, IC Insights is now calling for an 18% increase in integrated circuit sales in 2002. The research firm's previous forecast had been a 7% increase in IC sales in 2001, followed by a 9% growth in 2002.
Weaker economic growth, too much wafer-processing capacity, and a burn off IC inventories have combined--like "The Perfect Storm"--to wreck the semiconductor industry in 2001, said IC Insights. At the start of 2001, IC Insights had predicted two scenarios--either there would be two years of less than 10% growth in IC revenues, or there would be a significant drop in 2001 followed by a recovery in 2002.
And now "the current IC inventory burn is expected to be so severe that IC Insights believes 2001 will be only the second year in the last 22 years to exhibit a decline in IC unit volume shipments (the other being the inventory burn year of 1985)," said the research firm.
IC Insights said it believes favorable global economic conditions and balanced IC inventories will "lead to a double-digit rebound in the IC market in 2002."