MONTEREY, Calif.--Demand will outstrip supply for flash memory through the fourth quarter of 2004, but the imbalance situation is expected to reverse itself in the first quarter of 2005, according to a report from Web-Feet Research on Wednesday (May 26).
The consecutive yearly demand bit growth rates for flash in 2004, 2005 and 2006 over 2003 are forecast to be 209 percent, 191 percent and 150 percent, respectively, according to Web-Feet. However, the current supply/demand imbalance will be as high as 15.7 percent for NAND-based 1-bit/cell components in Q2 '04 and as low as zero percent in Q4 '04, according to the Monterey-based research firm.
"As a result of the aggressive built-up of production capacity by the established players and the entry of new players that have significant manufacturing capacities and capabilities, the imbalance situation is forecast to reverse for all five groups of flash memory components as of Q1/2005," according to the Monterey-based research firm. The various flash-memory groups include floating gate, trapped charge, NOR, and NAND.
Analysts agree and disagree with the findings. RBC Capital Markets in San Francisco believes there will be an oversupply of NAND-based flash in 2005. Investment banking firm JPMorgan claims the NAND supply shortage will continue until the end 2005 (see April 5 story).