The Semiconductor Industry Association (SIA) has reiterated its forecast for a 2001 second-half, industry-wide recovery. But one senior chip executive says the organisation is being over-optimistic.
The SIA expects the total semiconductor market to decline 14% to $175bn this year, but a second half upswing will presage growth of 21% to $211bn in 2002, 25% to $265bn in 2003 and 7% to $283bn in 2004.
But Wilf Corrigan, chairman of LSI Logic, says that declines in 2001 could be more severe: "SIA figures are put together as a consensus-driven forecast, and are a month out of date.
"We are getting the Q2 warnings and results [which indicate that things have got worse]. It will not surprise me if the industry is more than 20% down. The American numbers will look a lot worse.
"I think it's worse [than 1985]. My reaction a few months ago was that this feels more like 1985 than 1992. Then it was down 5% quarter-on-quarter, not 20%."
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