MANHASSET, N.Y. Despite a significant decline in 2001, the core global optical markets of Sonet, synchronous digital hierarchy (SDH) and wavelength division multiplexing will hit $38.5 billion by 2006, according to a report by Probe Research. The research firm predicts optical-market expansion at a compound annual growth rate of 10.4 percent from 2001 to 2006.
Maria Zeppetella, vice president, network infrastructure research at Probe (Cedar Knolls, N.J.), blamed the current reduction in spending mainly on unfulfilled expectations in the optical networking market. That market "was largely dependent on CLECs, dot-coms, ASPs and new carriers that promised much and delivered little. Vendors heavily financed them, only to see their demise and the further strengthened dominance of the ILECs."
But Zeppetella said that despite the combined impact of the economic downturn, stepped-up price competition, after-effects of the many mergers and acquisitions of the past few years and a carrier shakeout, the total market is expected to return to healthy growth by the forecast date. The total estimated $38.5 billion in 2006 breaks down to: $9.8 billion for Sonet, $11.8 billion for SDH, $8.8 billion for North American WDM, and $8.1 billion for rest of world WDM.