LONDON The three-month moving average of global chip sales is expected to come in at $22.8 billion for October, down 1 percent on the $23 billion achieved in September, according to Bruce Diesen, analyst at Carnegie ASA in Oslo, Norway.
Diesen maintains actual sales will be down 5.9 percent year-on-year for October, compared to the increase of 1.3 percent recorded in September.
"Actual sales should probably fall 9 percent year-on-year in November before stabilizing. When Lehman went bankrupt, the world slowed down," said Diesen.
Carnegie still expects a 4 percent decline in dollar terms for sales in 2009 compared to an earlier estimate of no change, and forecasts a 1 percent increase for this year.
Diesen says based on chip trends, world handset production has risen by low single digits in October.
He adds that while most of the indicators tracked by Carnegie slowed in October, Chinese high tech exports held up reasonably well.
The weakest sectors seen in October are likely to be memory chips, automotive and LCD TV chips.
World wafer starts rose only 2.7 percent year-on-year in the third quarter, compared with 11.5 percent in Q2. This is down on previous forecasts, "so we now estimate 7.5 percent growth in 2008, compared with the old estimate of 9 percent," said Diesen.
Carnegie now suggests a 1 percent drop in wafer starts for next year, compared with its last forecast of a 4 percent gain.
Diesen also predicts that the Taiwanese foundries lost market share in the third quarter, as they are "typically swing producers. "
And he suggests that for the second straight quarter, 200-mm volumes fell sharply.
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