LONDON The DRAM market will show significant quarterly growth throughout the rest of 2009, after touching a revenue low point in the first quarter, according to market research group IC Insights (Scottsdale, AZ.).
The reasons given are a tightening of capacity, increases in ASPs, and system demand beginning to recover.
Sequentially, the DRAM market is forecast to decline 5 percent in 1Q09, to $4.2 billion. Thereafter, IC Insights forecasts quarterly growth to $4.9 billion (17 percent) $5.9 billion (21 percent), and $6.8 billion (15 percent) to finish the year.
DRAM sales in 4Q09 are forecast to be 63 percent up on the first quarter of the year.
However, the researchers stress that even with such strong quarterly gains, the 2009 DRAM market is forecast to finish 12 percent down on that achieved last year.
IC Insights forecasts the DRAM market this year will be worth $22.3 billion, down from $25.2 billion in 2008.
The researchers suggests that with several DRAM vendors eliminating their 200-mm wafer fab capacity and with Qimonda and possibly other DRAM vendors filing for bankruptcy, supplies will tighten and more closely align with demand as the year progresses.
Average selling prices will, at the very least, stabilize, and may even ramp up.
Since the beginning of the year, spot prices for some versions of 512Mb and 1Gb DRAM devices are said to have increased by as much as 40 percent.
IC Insights suggests other memory segments would show a similar growth pattern in 2009, but not by nearly the same magnitude as DRAM. For example, the 4Q09 market for NAND flash memory is forecast to be 16 percent greater than in 1Q09.
On an annual basis, the NAND flash market this year is forecast to be 24 percent smaller than in 2008.