SEATTLE A state-of-the-state of the display industry reflects the overall trend in semiconductors and other parts of the electronics industry, but new technologies are reinforcing a positive growth for the display industry as a whole.
At the Society for Information Display conference held here DisplaySearch market analysts made their report.
DisplaySearch has increased its worldwide TV market forecast for 2010 by more than 10 million units to 228 million units, given the strong result in 2009 and the positive influence of new technology introductions such as 3-D and LED.
"The rapid transition to flat panel technologies in emerging markets and the robust level of growth even in mature markets has led us to improve our outlook for 2010," observed Hisakazu Torii, Vice President of TV Market Research for DisplaySearch.
"This is especially true for LCD TVs, which are now projected to exceed 180 million units in 2010, a 24 percent increase over 2009. This is helped by the introduction of new technologies like 3-D, as well as the expansion of newer features like LED backlights and internet connectivity."
The LCD TV shipment outlook is driven in part by the rapid expansion of LED backlit models. In 2009, an estimated 3.6 million LED-backlit LCD TVs shipped worldwide, with more than half of that coming in Q4’09, according to DisplaySearch.
Meanwhile, DisplaySearch is forecasting the 3-D market to grow from 2.5 million 3-D-capable TVs shipped in 2010 to 27 million sets in 2013. Yet while 3-D is forecast to show rapid growth, the market research firm predicts that only 27 percent of 40-in or larger sets shipped in 2013 will be 3-D-capable.
Furthermore, Blu-ray Disc and HD broadcast have low penetration in Western Europe, and as a result there remains a content gap that needs to be filled before 3-D can flourish, according to analysts.
"While 3-D TVs are all the rage, there has been a surge in the development of other TV enhancements," noted Paul Gray, DisplaySearch Director of TV Electronics Research.
The TV is becoming connected to the Web, as witnessed by recent moves by Google and others.
DisplaySearch forecasts that almost 100 million connected TVs will be shipped in 2013, up 546 percent from nearly 15 million in 2009.
Spending on TFT LCD manufacturing equipment is expected to surge from the recession-induced low of $7.0 billion in 2009 to approach previous cycle peaks with $13.2 billion in 2010.
"To reduce LED backlight costs, manufacturers need to develop innovative LED backlight structures with minimal use of LED chips, LGPs with optimized patterns, and effective optical film stacks," noted Kevin Kwak, DisplaySearch Director of LED Backlight Unit Research.
"Analyzing developments throughout the supply chain, we have built an LED and CCFL backlight cost simulation model. Based on this model we can forecast that the cost of a 40" LED backlight will reach $100 in Q4’10, a 2.8x premium over the equivalent CCFL backlight, down from 3.7x at the beginning of 2009."
Meanwhile, the market for pocket projectors seems to be taking off. DisplaySearch forecasts that the total pocket projector market will grow from 0.5 million units and $117 million in revenues in 2009 to 142 million units and $13.9 billion in revenues in 2018.
"Continuing progress in all the technologies surrounding pocket projectors will be needed to achieve the expected growth," noted Jennifer Colegrove, Director of Display Technologies at DisplaySearch.