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Foundries gird war 28-nm

7/13/2010 04:41 AM EDT
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FH1
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re: Foundries gird war 28-nm
FH1   7/14/2010 1:09:19 AM
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"Freeman also expressed concern about the rapid increase in capacity by foundries, calling the 300,000 wafer starts per month that the industry has added in recent times "way too much." In your dreams; this is simply not true !!! Capacity is still falling overall, barely increasing (1% in Q1) at the leading edge. Making a statement about 'plans to increase capacity' is just PR /marketing gobblegook not capacity. Even if firms did spend that much investment, it would take 2-3 years for it to be real wafer starts, even for Masters of the University TSMC. The real real world? Leading edge Cap Ex is sold out; Cap Ex investment in new capacity in 2008 (2010's capacity) was negligible; likewise 2009 (2011's capacity) only this year has there being any real new capacity spend but this will not impact until 2011 at the earliest (if for an existing cleanroom). Welcome to the real world!

pixies
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re: Foundries gird war 28-nm
pixies   7/13/2010 4:27:33 PM
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Last month I went to scavenge some used equipment at the defunct Qimonda fab in Richmond. It was an absolute shock for me to see a gleaming, stat-of-art manufacturing facility turned in to a ghost town. Such is the evil of overcapacity.

resistion
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re: Foundries gird war 28-nm
resistion   7/13/2010 3:18:48 PM
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If everyone crowds 40 or 28 nm, then the problems will happen. 20/14 nm is going to be based on effectively doubling the critical layers, making it more complicated. I'd rely on foundries for FEOL, but for key prototypes might do my own BEOL, for example.

KB3001
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re: Foundries gird war 28-nm
KB3001   7/13/2010 11:03:27 AM
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Good news for fabless companies indeed. The market oscillates between fragmentation and consolidation depending on the balance between supply and demand, and this industry is no exception. One thing that I would want people from the fabless semiconductor industry to comment on is how do you prevent your direct competitors from accessing your know-how and R&D investment if they decide to use the same fab?

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