SAN FRANCISCO -- Semicon West is in full swing. Several fab tool vendors have held analysts meetings. Here's what analysts are saying about those events:
Applied Materials Inc.
Edwin Mok, an analyst with Needham & Co. LLC, said: ''AMAT continues to believe it can gain two points of market share in its Silicon business in 2010, driven by wins in inspection and etch; however, AMAT remains cautious on solar suggesting further slowdown of its thin-film SunFab business.''
C.J. Muse, an analyst with Barclays Capital, said: ''Management offered optimistic outlook on SPE, highlighting that wafer starts are now tracking 14 percent higher than 2008 peak with incremental demand coming from 14 greenfield fabs (prior forecast 11).''
Muse said: ''Based on meeting with Cymer management along with other litho checks, we continue to see upside to immersion unit shipments in 2010 to as high as 135 units (official forecast 125) led by Samsung Austin, SMIC, IMFS, and GF. To this end, we remain confident on our immersion laser shipment outlook for 79 units for Cymer with risk slightly to the upside.''
Mok said: ''KLAC announced preliminary June quarter results above guidance and expects September quarter bookings to continue to grow. To drive growth, KLAC is focusing more on areas outside of its core semi business, including backend packaging, LED and solar.''
Muse said: ''KLAC raised its order outlook to $955 million for the June quarter (+51 percent Q/Q) vs. prior guide of 25 percent ($811+ million), kept its revenue guide of $530-570 million and suggested its EPS came in above the range of $0.54-0.62 . And while management would not offer official guide for September quarter orders, the bias as of today is for orders to be in the $800+ million range, suggesting continued momentum.''
Lam Research Corp.
Mok said: ''LRCX comments were very bullish and the company provided very aggressive longer-term revenue/EPS targets over the next 2-3 years. The main drivers for growth would come from share gains in leading edge applications for both etch and clean, including metal hard mask, HKMG, TSV and double patterning.''
Muse said: ''Big picture, Lam continues to gain share in etch, led by strong customer mix and wins in double patterning and other applications, with management targeting 52-54 percent etch share in 2010 (8-10 points of share gains in 2010 vs. 2009; this compares to 29 percent in 2000 and 48.5 percent in 2007). Layer in expectations for clean share to exceed 30 percent, and Lam sees revenue opportunity of $3.5 billion at a $31-32 billion WFE environment and $4.0 billion at $35 billion -- levels management expects this cycle.''
Novellus Systems Inc.
Mok said: ''NVLS kicked off the earnings season with a strong earnings report and guidance. We continue to be impressed by the leverage in its model. NVLS announced 4 new products for the 3D packaging market that the company could add $200 million of incremental revenue by 2012.''
Muse said: ''While investor concerns continue to focus on the sustainability of SOC orders off of significant 1Q bookings base, Teradyne management reiterated their outlook for the SOC test market to reach $2.7-3.0 billion for the year, supported by analog, power management and MCU test. And given lead-times remain extended at 10-12 weeks, we see revenue visibility extending through 3Q. We continue to see likelihood for orders to be flat to up in 2Q, suggesting likely upside to our 2H10 estimates. Looking to the non-SOC businesses - memory and HDD - management maintained their outlook for a likely pick-up in 2H10 revenues in both markets (memory tester demand likely led by flash, HDD revenues driven by repeat shipments to Western Digital and likely addition of a second customer) though recent incremental weakness in HDD and notebook demand may pressure sentiment on memory and HDD in the near term.''
Tokyo Electron Ltd.
Mok said: ''Last week, TEL reported weaker-than-expected preliminary June quarter orders. Additionally, TEL provided more conservative September quarter order guidance of just flat Q/Q. The weaker near-term performance of TEL's semi equipment business leads us to believe the company may have lost some share.''
Muse said: ''During their presentation, TEL indicated that the September quarter and June quarter look very similar in terms of orders and that they had seen some pull-ins and some push-outs in the foundry space but nothing of note.''
Mok said: ''Based on continued strength in foundry orders and increased memory orders, we expect VSEA's revenue to sequentially grow in the September quarter and December quarter.''