SAN FRANCISCO—Front end wafer fab equipment spending is projected to be up 133 percent this year compared to 2009 and is forecast to grow another 18 percent in 2011, according to a forecast created by the SEMI trade group.
Worldwide installed fab capacity, excluding discretes, is expected to grow by 7 percent in 2010 and another 8 percent in 2011, according to SEMI's World Fab Forecast. The report projects that fab construction spending will grow by 125 percent in 2010 and another 22 percent in 2011.
More than 150 fab projects in 2010 and 2011 will be worth an estimated $83 billion in spending, according to the report. The projects tracked include construction projects and equipment spending for high volume, smaller capacity, MEMS, and discrete fabs, including LED fabs, according to SEMI.
The forecast identifies a total of 54 construction projects underway in 2010, resulting in some $4.5 billion in construction spending, according to SEMI. About half of these projects are LED fabs, mostly located in China, SEMI said.
In 2011, fewer, larger fab construction projects will results in about $5.5 billion in construction spending, according to the forecast.
Fab equipment spending will rise an estimated 133 percent in 2010 to $34 billion, according to the report. Compared to 2008, equipment spending will be up 27 percent, according to the forecast.
Equipment spending will rise another 18 percent to $39 billion in 2011, finally surpassing 2007 spending levels, according to the forecast.
Roughly 22 fabs are expected to open their doors in 2010, with about half of them being LED fabs, according to the report. Another 28 fabs are expected to begin operations next year, including four memory chip fabs, according to the report.
By the end of 2010, worldwide installed fab capacity, excluding discretes, is expected to grow to 14.4 million 200-mm equivalent wafers per month, according to the report. Capacity is projected to grow another 8 percent in 2011 to 15.8 million 200-mm equivalent wafers per month, according to the report.
The memory sector accounts for the largest share of worldwide installed capacity, about 41 percent in both 2010 and 2011, SEMI said. Foundry sector capacity, which accounts for the second highest total is expected to account for about 26 percent of all installed capacity in 2011, up from 24 percent in 2009.
On Tuesday, Barclays lowered its estimate for 2011 capital spending by semiconductor vendors, saying it now expects chip industry capital spending to decline 10 percent from a projected $43.2 billion this year. Barclays said its projection for 2010 capital spending would represent an increase of 97 percent from the 2009 level.
This is not a suprising news, especially nowadays when everybody in the market struggles with extended LTs and allocation issues since long. Almost all founderies announced plans to spend tremendous amount of money to their fabs such as TSMC, GB, Samsung, Intel etc. However i'm still missing a part in the puzzle. Still no plan to switch 450mm wafers? Why nobody is focusing on larger scale wafer processing? Only intel had some movements but rest?
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