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Analyst cuts 2010 chip growth forecast to 32%

9/30/2010 02:47 PM EDT
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the_floating_ gate
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re: Analyst cuts 2010 chip growth forecast to 32%
the_floating_ gate   10/2/2010 6:17:10 AM
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"If capital spending is any gauge, then the semiconductor industry still has a way to go to a full recovery. iSuppli says that chip makers will spend 46.8 per cent more on wafer baking equipment in 2010 than they did last year, but even with that the capital spending will be less than half the levels set by the industry in 2007 and 2008. Chip makers are focused on moving to new technologies right now, not building out capacity for existing technologies. ®" "research" analysts and WS analysts created a perfect catch 22 scenario - either they spend too little or they spend to much. I supply increased the forecast from 21% to 35% - and now down to 32% and now the sky is falling. Pretty pathetic

wilber_xbox
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re: Analyst cuts 2010 chip growth forecast to 32%
wilber_xbox   10/1/2010 6:35:26 PM
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You have a valid point p_g...if would consider the % increment in the product sold in an electronic product category to find out the growth and not how much money did the product sale generate. With the increase in the product price, this might happen that the total income is more but the number of product actually sold are the same or lower. New products may increase the demand but this might have an impact on the existing product. As there was news about lower sale of notebooks due to iPad.

Cowan LRA Model
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re: Analyst cuts 2010 chip growth forecast to 32%
Cowan LRA Model   10/1/2010 10:58:53 AM
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Hi the_floating_floating_gate - do not "fear," Google is here! By highlighting the URL you pointed us to it "pops up" in the Google search box and "firing on" the search button takes YOU right to the article you invoked. Isn't technology great!!!! Mike C.

the_floating_ gate
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re: Analyst cuts 2010 chip growth forecast to 32%
the_floating_ gate   10/1/2010 3:36:49 AM
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This sucks - it appears you can not put in links

the_floating_ gate
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re: Analyst cuts 2010 chip growth forecast to 32%
the_floating_ gate   10/1/2010 3:34:56 AM
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"Sometimes I think we try to read too much into the importance of growth deltas to the point that it starts to affect perception and influence behavior. " 32% versus 35% is not significant; an increase from 20% to 35% is significant http://www.theregister.co.uk/2010/03/08/isuppli_2010_chip_forecast/

p_g
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re: Analyst cuts 2010 chip growth forecast to 32%
p_g   10/1/2010 2:29:18 AM
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5% in 2011 is definitely not a good sign. I am more worried not that semiconductor cost is going up every node putting more pressure on companies. The growth is now defined by any new field which will create new customers. IPad certainly created new base.

Cowan LRA Model
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re: Analyst cuts 2010 chip growth forecast to 32%
Cowan LRA Model   10/1/2010 12:40:30 AM
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Baolt - fyi the WSTS monthly global S/C sales numbers are published on the WSTS website at the following URL = http://www.wsts.org/public/files/bbhist-24.xls and thus "available" to all! Check it out. Regards, Mike C.

Baolt
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re: Analyst cuts 2010 chip growth forecast to 32%
Baolt   9/30/2010 11:47:35 PM
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Hello Mike, i am honored that my post took your attention. Very pleased to meet. Unfortunately I am not a subscriber of WSTS releases however now even more curious about their report accordingly your update of course. The biggest question is that rather we should be optimistic as future horizons, SC inteligence or keep being pessimistic as isuppli, ic insights about 2010 market forecast?

Cowan LRA Model
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re: Analyst cuts 2010 chip growth forecast to 32%
Cowan LRA Model   9/30/2010 10:35:02 PM
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Hi Baolt - just wanted to mention that I will also be updating my fcrecast shortly - immediately following the release of August global S/C sales by the WSTS scheduled for October 4th. Therefore, "stay tuned" for my latest sales growth forecast estimate based upon the latest sales numbers from the WSTS (World Semiconductor Trade Statistics organization. Mike Cowan, independent S/C industry analyst (and developer of the Cowan LRA forecasting model)

Baolt
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re: Analyst cuts 2010 chip growth forecast to 32%
Baolt   9/30/2010 9:27:26 PM
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Where IC capacity utilization hits highest since Q3 2000, as 95.6%, why being so skeptical about growth rate? With the several fab-cuts global IC capacity decreased for sure, and shortly market will face shortage however there is no doubt we have huge growth up to now. There are several locomotives of the electronic market running fast, look at pads, smartphones, 3D&Led screening sets, low cost computing gadgets, many other imminent reveals announced i would say we should stop being pessimistic, and forget about bad lessons of recession times. We still have forecasts of from Mike Cowan, Future Horizons and SC Intelligence on had where its indicated above 35%, i would say with all factors on had SC market would beat 34% easily, perhaps even more if electronic supply& marketing strategies wont collapse.

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