LONDON — The "actual" global market for chips in August, as calculated by the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics organization, was $25.36 billion, up 30.8 percent from the same month a year before and up 3.2 percent from July 2010 sales of $24.57 billion.
However, the sequential rise in chips sales was less than the average rise over the previous decade, which has, on average, shown a sequential rise of 7.5 percent.
The below-long-term-trend (LTT) August partly compensates for an above-LTT July in which chip sales fell by 9.5 percent. The previous decade's average has seen July sales fall sequentially by 17.7 percent.
These figures are based on actual chip sales rather than the three-month-moving average used by the Semiconductor Industry Association and the European Semiconductor Industry Association. These use an average to smooth out the data that would otherwise show troughs at the beginning of the quarters and peaks at the end of the quarter.
Analyst Mike Cowan's linear regression analysis model recognized the below-average August sales and he has reduced his estimates for 3Q, 4Q and 2010 global sales slightly from his previous month's forecast estimates.
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Global chip sales rise in August, says ESIA
July 'actual' chip sales were above trend
Cowan now sees 2010 global chips sales coming in at $305.406 billion, down from $305.729 billion, and corresponding to a projected 2010 year-over-year sales growth forecast estimate of 34.9 percent. Cowan now sees Q3 sales at $81.330, up sequentially by 8.7 percent, which is still better than the 10-year LTT of 8.1 percent. Cowan's estimate for Q4 global chip sales is now $79.429 billion, down sequentially by 2.3 percent. This would put Q4 below the decade-average of a 0.6 percent drop in sales.
Chip sales stay strong amid slowdown signs