SAN JOSE, Calif. - We are in the fourth quarter and the outlook is cloudy for the rest of 2010 and heading into 2011. Here are some good and bad signs for the electronics industry:
Bill Jewell, an analyst for Semiconductor Intelligence LLC, said: ''2010 will be a strong year, with growth over 30 percent according to most recent forecasts. Growth is expected to slow down significantly in 2011 and 2012, despite a continuing recovery in the world economy. In their June forecasts, WSTS and SIA forecast growth to slow to about 6 percent in 2011 and 3 percent to 4 percent in 2012. Recent forecasts from Gartner and iSuppli call for 2011 growth of about 5 percent and 2012 growth of less than 2 percent. We at Semiconductor Intelligence believe these forecasts are too conservative. Semiconductor Intelligence forecasts 2011 growth of 9 percent and 2012 growth of 8 percent. These growth rates are consistent with a continued economic recovery (primarily driven by emerging economies).''
The MPU market is projected to grow 13.6 percent in 2011, reaching $45.7 billion in revenue, according to Semico Research Corp. Semico expects to see continued sustained growth into 2011.
VLSI Research Inc., in an research note, said: ''NAND flash had another solid week despite finishing the week lower. High-density NAND, which accounts for the majority of NAND demand, was surprisingly strong. Even though NAND demand in the spot market is slowing, supplies are relatively tight. This is keeping overall ASPs at very healthy levels.''
Gary Mobley, an analyst with Benchmark, said: ''Unlike many chip companies, Broadcom reported another beat-and-raise quarter. Third-quarter revenue exceeded consensus by 3 percent. Management’s Q4 FY10 guidance calls for revenue ranging between $1.8 billion and $1.9 billion, up 3 percent sequentially using the midpoint. Sequential revenue growth for Q4 FY10 should be driven by Broadcom’s VideoCore mobile media processor design win ramp at Nokia, strong sales of Apple’s iPhone and iPad and baseband share gains at Nokia.''
''Rapidly declining equipment costs combined with stronger government support have set the stage for explosive growth in the U.S. solar market over the next decade,'' according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance.
''Solar-powered generating capacity – using photovoltaic and solar thermal electricity technologies – could reach 4.3 percent of the nation’s power capacity by 2020, depending on the industry’s ability to attract an estimated $100 billion of investment,'' according to the firm.''The U.S. today has just 1.4 gigawatts of installed solar power capacity, ranking it fifth globally.''
''But that could rise to 44 gigawatts by 2020,'' according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance. In a new report, ''forecast capacity from large-scale solar thermal projects is projected to rise from 0.4 gigawatts currently to 14 gigawatts by 2020. For photovoltaics, the group anticipates a 34 percent annual growth rate to 30 gigawatts by 2020.''
These predictions are worthless, particularily from the guys listed, Garner, ISuppli, etc. In Nov 2009 they were downgrading their forecasts, some to less than 1/3 of what actually happened for 2010, then in Sept 2010 they are up grading their forecasts for 2010 to be in line with the actuals. These guys couldn't predict yesterday's weather. Here is my prediction: At this time next year Garner and ISuppli will be changing their incorrect 2010 forecasts by more than 50%.
I am surprised to find no mention of rapidly growing market for GPU's that are finding their way to servers, pretty soon even in 'low end' ones. The growth for these boxes is well assured in network enterprises of developing economies, not to mention data centers.
On the consumer market side, I was also did not find any mention of ARM's Cortex A-15 based devices (from TI, Samsung, ST-Ericsson, etc., the one that Intel missed!) are leading the growth bandwagon, in developed & developing economies. There is definitely great growth potential for products in this category.
The above two certainly represent good trends in the IC market.
Dr. MP Divakar
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