SAN FRANCISCO—Fourth quarter analog semiconductor revenue is projected to be roughly $10.3 billion, a decline of 7 percent compared to the third quarter, according to the latest forecast from market research firm Databeans Inc.
Databeans (Reon, Nev.) projects that the analog market will rebound slightly in the first quarter of 2011 to reach slightly more than $10.6 billion globally.
As a whole, pricing will remain consistent and even with additional capacity coming online, Databeans said. There should be little change in pricing from 2010 going into 2011 as most of the realized cost for analog is in design and not necessarily in manufacturing, according to the firm.
Markets for "general purpose" analog—chips designed with a "standard cell" approach found across all application markets—will experience a milder decline in the fourth quarter, declining 6 percent sequentially to $2.5 billion, according to Databeans' forecast. General purpose analog markets should return to third quarter levels by the beginning of 2011, Databeans predicts.
The largest general purpose analog market—Power ICs—will experience the lightest declines of any analog product in the fourth quarter, dropping just 2 percent to $2.45 billion in total sales, according to the forecast.
The analog ASSP market, which is far more vulnerable to sudden ups and downs in specific end markets, is projected to decline by 8 percent in the fourth quarter to $5.6 billion, according to Databeans. Analog ASSPs are expected to rebound slightly in the first quarter of 2011, growing 2 percent, the firm said.
The computer analog segment will experience the greatest declines of any individual analog market, dropping by approximately 17 percent from the third quarter to the fourth quarter, Databeans predicted. Industrial analog will follow with another 14 percent decline, while communications will experience the mildest declines of any analog ASSP category, falling 3 percent sequentially in the fourth quarter, the firm said.
The analog and mixed signal markets remain relatively concentrated in terms of market share, with the top 10 suppliers easily owning a majority share of the industry, Databeans said. This has kept competition somewhat lower and made large swings in market share uncommon, the firm said. Texas Instruments Inc., STMicroelectronics NV and Infineon Technologies AG remain among the list of overall market leaders in analog ICs, according to Databeans
The analog function could be getting incorporated more into mixed signal products like processors. Major analog players are TI, Analog Devices, Linear Tech, Maxim, On Semi, National, International Rectifier, Fairchild. Each company has its specialties. Good things to focus on now are power and mixed signal products. Power because the power requirements keep getting more complex with more voltage rails and the push for efficiency.
This is a normal seasonal anomaly. You can see from the chart that 3rd quarter is the big quarter due to the builds for Christmas. It also show a projected decline for 4Q11. If you look at the year on year growth for 2010 to 2011 its 10%. Not too shabby.
What does the down trend really indicates? I don't really understand how the analog component sales are going down when there is actually huge rise in the consumer prodcut electronics sale. May be only the analog devices sales have come down due to competitors. Do we have any consolidated sales picture showing major analog players in the industry.