SUNNYVALE, Calif. - Semiconductor capital spending is expected to hit $59.070 billion in 2011, up 15 percent over 2010, according to IC Insights Inc.
The forecasted 2011 top 25 semiconductor capital spenders are shown below. ''There are five companies that are expected to spend at least $3.0 billion in 2011, the same number as in 2010 and three more than in 2009,'' according to IC Insights.
The members of the $3 billion ''capex club'' are Samsung, Intel, TSMC, Globalfoundries and Hynix,'' according to the firm.
"Five of the top 10 increases are expected to come from major DRAM and flash memory suppliers. However, the top increase in 2011 is forecast to come from Intel, a massive $3.8 billion surge,'' according to the firm.
@Junko: I agree that a few are spending the bulk of the investments; this will certainly have an impact on innovation. To that end, the onus is on the few big spenders to nurture a development/innovation forum for the have-nots to participate. A case in point would be the Global Foundries' "Common Platform Alliance" which seems to have gotten off to a good start.
I noticed IBM weaning itself off the Semi CapEx cycle in 2011; it seems IBM will be more of an R&D player as semiconductor technology advances.
2011 CaEx level is nearly identical to 2010 CapEx level. Neither DRAM nor NAND is in any overcapacity - the result will likely be stable ASPs.
Both 2011 and 2012 will likely be strong years (10%+ growth) except if we enter another oil shock - price/barrell at $100 or so. The main concern is that oil prices are already above $90/barrell.
What amazes me is tht IC Insights holds the same 10% projection since September -- more conservative forecasts are all being revised upwards...
I think it all depends on an individual company's investment cycle. (Some invested more last year but spending less this year)
But looking at 2011 figures, the continuous investments by Intel and Globalfoundries stand out.
Does this have an impact on the innovation? Absolutely. Without continuously substantial investments, how do we expect to have our next-node chips manufactured?
No doubt that there will be more mergers and acquisitions in this industry...but, again, it never ceases to amaze me how much money chip manufacturers need to spend to keep up with their competitors.
But notice, those who are increasing their spending in 2011 (see 2011/2010 change) are far fewer and they are spending less. Even those who are spending are spending less...
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