SAN JOSE, Calif. -- It's earnings season and a plethora of fab tool companies reported their results. Here's what analysts said about some of the players:
C.J. Muse, an analyst with Barclays Capital, said: ''Amkor reported in-line 1Q results, with revenues/EPS of $665 million/$0.10 vs. consensus of $673 million/$0.09. Blended utilization declined to ~71 percent from ~76 percent in 4Q10, with the biggest revenue dips in gaming/consumer (-22 percent Q/Q) and networking (-18 percent Q/Q). For 2Q, management guided to sales of $650-700 million and EPS of $0.04-0.15, in line with our estimates of $675 million/$0.09, but below consensus of $725 million/$0.17.
Management attributed $50 million of the weakness to demand uncertainty/substrate and component shortages, and $20 million to a contract with a baseband customer coming to an end. This said, AMKR currently expects a stronger-than-seasonal snapback in 3Q.
As a result of the uncertainty, Amkor lowered its 2011 capex budget from the previous $500 million to $450 million (-11 percent Y/Y). Net net, we now estimate FCF for the year of ~$120 million. On the plus side, management's 2Q outlook came in right in line with our expectations, and we believe the scaling down of the 2011 capex budget will be viewed positively by investors.''
C.J. Muse, an analyst with Barclays Capital, said: ''Cymer reported strong 1Q of $154 million/$0.94 (consensus $150 million/$0.81), with upside driven by gross margins (51.5 percent vs. guide of ~50 percent). However, looking to 2Q, Cymer anticipates slightly lower light source shipments (~46 vs. 50).''
C.J. Muse, an analyst with Barclays Capital, said: ''FORM reported March Q of $40 million/-$0.40 (consensus $37 million/-$0.42) and guided to June Q of $42-46 million/-$0.30 to -$0.36 (consensus $40 million/-$0.35). We applaud management on the recent cost down efforts, but we continue to model losses through CY12.''
C.J. Muse, an analyst with Barclays Capital, said: ''Led by continued strength from foundry/logic (73 percent of mix), KLAC reported better March Q of $834 million/$1.31 (consensus $810 million/$1.24). And then supported by backlog of ~$1.4 billion entering 2Q offset partially by some order pushouts from 1Q to 2Q/3Q, KLAC still guided to robust June Q of $840-900 million/$1.28-1.44 (consensus $825 million/$1.28).
While the bear case on KLAC is that foundry/logic exposure is bound to roll over, we think increased process control, particularly for 20-nm NAND, will offer a buffer to a likely decrease in foundry spend in 2012.''
Edwin Mok, an analyst with Needham & Co. LLC, said: ''Revenue of $809 million was largely inline with consensus, although shipments of $813 million, down 9 percent Q/Q, was at the lower-end of guidance. EPS beat on better than expected GM and a lower tax rate. LRCX stated the recent earthquake in Japan had little-to-no impact on its business.
Push-outs result in lower revenue/shipment guidance. LRCX confirmed recent chatter surrounding some push-outs and issued lower June Q shipments/revenue guidance of $755-805 million/$725-765 million, which were both well below consensus. EPS guidance of $1.00-$1.14 was meaningfully below consensus of $1.40 due to the drop in sales and increased OPEX. Management stated that DRAM shipment trends were worse than expected, while foundry/logic customers reduced equipment intake in order to absorb the capacity added over the last few quarters.''
Edwin Mok, an analyst with Needham & Co. LLC, said: ''Mattson reported stronger 1Q11 sales and provided higher 2Q11 revenue guidance due to the strength of its new etch product penetration. While MTSN will likely outgrow the industry this year on the strong ramp in etch, we are concerned that the company will not return to profitability anytime soon. With the increased risk for shipment push-outs within the semi equipment sector, we maintain our Hold rating.
We are encouraged by volume shipments of MTSN’s etch product into new NAND applications (at Samsung, we believe), and continued shipments of its Alpine etch tool for a back-end application (at TXN, we believe). Additionally, MTSN has expanded its Helios RTP penetration into 3 foundries and is expected to ship its millisecond RTP tool (Millios) to a third customer.''
Novellus Systems Inc.
Edwin Mok, an analyst with Needham & Co. LLC, said: ''1Q11 revenue/non-GAAP EPS of $413.4 million/$1.04 slightly beat consensus of $410 million/$1.03. However, bookings and shipments were at the low end of guidance, as customers turned more cautious on expansion plans. 2Q11 revenue/non-GAAP EPS guidance of $330-372 million/$0.65-$0.80 missed consensus of $405 million/$1.00 due to two major order push-outs.
''As expected, NVLS guided 2Q11 bookings down 10-25 percent Q/Q primarily due to two major order push-outs at a memory and a logic customer (Samsung & TSMC, we believe). The size of the push-out totaled >$80 million based on management commentary. Management believes customers’ fab utilization at the trailing edge 65-nm or above has dipped, leading to a delay in capital spending. Inline with comments by LRCX, NVLS is confident that business will rebound in 2H11, since the orders were delayed, not cancelled.''
C.J. Muse, an analyst with Barclays Capital, said: ''TER reported better March Q ($377 million/$0.39 vs. consensus $366 million/$0.37) but guided to slightly worse-than-expected 2Q with revenues/EPS of $375-400 million/$0.38-$0.44 (consensus $402 million/$0.45). The larger takeaway is that SOC test has troughed and is picking up gradually through 2011. And while SOC test may not be as strong as it was in 2010, the earnings power of TER is enhanced by strength in HDD and NAND.
(Teradyne's) sell-off makes no sense to us. Quite frankly, this sell-off doesn't compute. 2Q missed by a little, but this is explainable. Yes, commentary on potential M&A was perhaps too frank, but this should not be new news.''
Edwin Mok, an analyst with Needham & Co. LLC, said: ''March revenue of $330 million was above guidance and beat consensus of $321 million. EPS of $1.07 slightly beat consensus of $1.06 on strong OM of 28.9 percent, despite higher OPEX.
F3Q11 (June) revenue guidance of $323-$333 million is essentially flat Q/Q, and well above peers’ outlook of down 5-15 percent Q/Q. VSEA confirmed some order push-out, but stated that June Q revenue could have been significantly higher without the push-out. Additionally, VSEA stated that it has not seen an increase in competitive pricing action that was highlighted by ACLS. Clearly, guidance suggests strong adoption of VSEA’s new high current implant tool and continued progress in Japan.
Solar continues to make progress. VSEA expects to ship at least 5 more tools in the coming quarter, including a repeat order from a second customer (beyond Suniva). VSEA remains confident that revenue will surpass prior targets of $25-30 million in CY11 and $100 million by CY12.''
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