LONDON – The first quarter market for global semiconductor sales was $75.77 billion a sequential increase of 0.4 percent and up 11.75 percent compared with 1Q10, according to World Semiconductor Trade Statistics. But the numbers include a significant downward revision for previously published January and February 'actual' sales figures.
Annual growth in February and March was considerably below the exceptionally strong sales reported for January. And WSTS eliminated $1.46 billion of sales from previously published February sales and 187.8 million of sales from January.
WSTS has made minor revisions in the past but to delete $1.5 billion from a single month is exceptional. Nonetheless, a 0.4 percent sequential increase in the first quarter is considerably above the historical average. Over the previous decade the global chip market had contracted by 4.1 percent on average and by 3.3 percent if the most extreme cases are taken out of the analysis.
Q2 and Q3 normally show strong sequential growth in chip market sales, of about 3 and 8 percent respectively, in preparation for the consumer holiday buying season. This comes before a flat to slightly down fourth quarter.
So far there seems to have been little effect on sales of the earthquake that struck Japan on March 11. It could be that impacts will be felt in Q2 and Q3 and April sales figures from leading chip companies will be worth scrutiny. For now, 2011 is reported to be a 'normal' year with some price robustness.
The strength of the first quarter has given rise to the following estimates for quarterly global chip sales:
1Q11: $75.766 billion (reported)
2Q11: $77 billion to $80 billion
3Q11: $82 billion to $85 billion
4Q11: $80 billion to $86 billion
This corresponds to a 2011 annual total for worldwide semiconductor sales of between $315 billion and $328 billion, a percentage increase of between 5 and 10 percent, respectively.
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Chip market on 9% CAGR to 2013, says analyst
WSTS cuts $1 bn in chip sales, says analyst
Chip market set for modest growth in 2011