BRUSSELS, Belgium – Brokerage firm Nomura Securities has raised its forecast for growth in the value of the global semiconductor market to 4.4 percent, an increase from its previous projection of 3.1 percent given in December 2010.
The modestly revised figure reflects demand for smartphones and servers being above previous expectations and stronger-than-expected prices for memory ICs.
With memory taken out Nomura has reduced the growth of the remainder of the semiconductor market to 4.1 percent from 5.6 percent taking into account slowing demand in the consumer sector. However, Nomura also expects to see growth for analog and power semiconductors on brisk industrial demand, as well as increasing demand for NAND flash and mobile DRAM used in smartphones and tablet computers.
Companies well positioned in these areas stand to benefit considerably and Nomura picks out Maxim Integrated Products, Samsung Electronics, Toshiba, Mitsubishi Electric, and STMicroelectronics.
At the same time Nomura is now projecting a 12.2 percent year-on-year growth in the volume of PC shipments including tablets in 2011.
Tablet computers remain the hot item and Nomura predicts shipment growth of 12.2 percent in 2011 and 17.3 percent in 2012. Meanwhile conventional PCs will rise only 3.3 percent in 2011 and 5.8 percent in 2012.
Memory IC demand has is shifting from commodity DRAM to mobile DRAM and NAND flash. This is expected to result in 10.3 percent decline in DRAM shipment value in 2011, compared with a previous estimate of a 21.3 percent fall. NAND flash shipment value is expected to grow strongly, climbing 34.6 percent in 2011.
@peter.clarke: if you put these predictions in perspective with the market forecasts for sectors that directly influence the Semi market, many things don't add up! Take EDA for example, which is forecast to grow at CAGR of 9.7% thru 2015. Granted not all of EDA market directly influences Semi products (like PCB design software), a great majority of the applications of EDA is indeed in the chip design segment. So where is this growth coming from, if the end products are forecast only at 4.4%?
Does the forecast completely exclude MEMS sensors and their integrated (vertical / lateral, with logic, memory, i.e., a 'system') markets? Also, even with out memory market, I tend to think the proliferation of low-cost Semi components in everyday appliances (eg., an LED flashlight) will support the growth at equal to or more than the average consumer market growth.
Dr. MP Divakar
European sales in euro terms can be found at www.eeca.eu
For examples European sales in 2010 grew 27.1 percent in U.S. dollar terms but 34.7 percent in euro terms.
However, as far as I know WSTS only considers and reports sales in U.S. dollars.
However, many companies, even when based outside the U.S. report in dollars, which is the leading currency of the semiconductor industry.
A that is sometimes pulled is to switch between dollars and their local currency for reporting quarterly results every year or two....the constant switching makes it harder to compare like with like.
"4% growth in Dollar".
good point - I was always wondering about this - global IC sales are reported in US $ - no question asked
there is a lot of noise (and short/mid term trends) induced due to currency changes - that leaves us with IC units.
Few forecasters break it down in units and ASP -
but currency exchange trends/fluctuations ?
Don't expect too much from the experts - that gets far too complicated
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