BRUSSELS, Belgium – The three-month average of global chip sales for April are likely to be $25.3 billion April, similar to the $25.26 billion reported in March by the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics organization, according to Bruce Diesen, an analyst at Carnegie Group (Oslo, Norway).
However, the actual global sales for April will only be up 3 percent year-on-year, according to Diesen, as the market faces tough comparisons with last year.
"PC chip sales look stronger in April, but handset chip shipments should also improve," said Diesen in a note.
Japanese statistics released today show a smaller than expected effect from the earthquake of March 11 on semiconductors and chemicals in April. With a pipeline of inventory, Diesen does not expect the earthquake to impact PC or handset production until June.
Diesen is predicting world semiconductor sales in 2011 to rise 5 percent in U.S. dollar terms, putting Diesen at the top of the bear camp with TSMC (2 percent) and Nomura (4.4 percent) and away from more bearish forecasters such as Future Horizons.
Mike Cowan is predicting that the April three-month average of global chip sales will be reported at $24.69 billion. WSTS and SIA are expected to report the figure on about June 1.
The 3MMA April sales forecast estimate that the Cowan LRA forecasting model "spit out" last month corresponds to an April "actual" sales forecast estimate of $23.49 billion.
The above Cowan predicted 3MMA sales expectation also assumes that there will be no (or very minor) revisions to either February or March's actual sales numbers as reported last month by the WSTS.
Plugging in the actual April sales estimate into the model yields a year 2011 overall semiconductor global sales forecast of $322.53 billion which corresponds to a yr-over-yr sales growth prediction of 8.1 percent. This result is therefore more bullish than Diesen's prediction of 5 percent.
Stay "tuned" for next month's model run of forecast estimates following the WSTS's reporting of April's actual sales figure expected at the beginning of June.
Join our online Radio Show on Friday 11th July starting at 2:00pm Eastern, when EETimes editor of all things fun and interesting, Max Maxfield, and embedded systems expert, Jack Ganssle, will debate as to just what is, and is not, and embedded system.