LONDON – The three-month average of global chip sales for June is going to be $24.6 billion, down compared with a figure of $25.03 billion reported for May by the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics organization, according to Bruce Diesen, an analyst at Carnegie Group (Oslo, Norway).
This would also be down on the three-month average for June 2010 which would reflect that 2Q11 actual global chip sales are down on those of 2Q10. As a result Diesen is lowering his forecast for 2011 global chip market growth from 5 percent to 3 percent.
"PC, handset and TV sales are running slower than expected in 2011, and we now expect world semiconductor sales to rise 3 percent in US dollar terms in 2011, compared to our previous forecast of 5 percent. Sales of electronics have been particularly soft in the US and Europe. Nokia and Acer in particular have worked off excess inventories in Q2," Diesen said in a note to clients.
Mike Cowan is predicting that the June three-month average of global chip sales will be reported at $25.445 billion but with the caveat that this assumes "no (or minor) sales revisions for either April or May's previously published actual sales.
Recently WSTS has made a series of major and minor downward revisions to sales data from earlier in 2011. WSTS and SIA are expected to report the June averaged figure on about August 1.
Hi Peter - the latest update to the Cowan LRA forecasting model's expectation for 2011's semi sales growth (based upon May's sales number posted by the WSTS) likewise indicated a drop to 6.7 percent from last month's prediction of 8.0 percent.
Although not as "strong" a drop compared to Diesen's latest prognostication quoted above, namely a 5 percent to 3 percent decrease, directionally both trends are the same.
Mike C., idependent semi industry analyst and developer of the Cowan LRA Model